Emil Andrae deserves a permanent Flyers’ roster spot

Last Friday morning Flyers fans woke to the unwelcome news that one of the highlights of the blue line this season had been sent down to the AHL’s Lehigh Valley Phantoms. The announcement came after the Flyers’ disappointing 7–3 loss to the Los Angeles Kings on Thursday evening, a game in which Emil Andrae, fresh from a three game stint in the press box, was far from the worst performer. This decision did not prove a popular one among fans, many of whom felt the 22-year-old defenseman had earned the chance to stay up.

John Tortorella said that this decision was a “no-brainer,” that “it’s gotten too rich for him [Andrae]” and that they don’t want to risk hurting him. Far be it for us to disagree with John Tortorella, but we disagree with John Tortorella, and so do the numbers. We believe Andrae deserves a concrete spot on the roster. Join us, as we argue against the Tortorella in my head.

‘Andrae is too small and undersized for a defenseman‘

The kid is about to turn 23 years old; a stint in the AHL is not going to spark a magic four inch growth spurt. At 5-foot-8 and 190 pounds, Andrae is definitely short compared to the average NHL defenseman, but smaller players have always found ways to adapt and carve a place for themselves in the league. The Flyers blueliner is either going to be one of those, or he isn’t, and the way to figure that out isn’t by sending him back down to a league we already know he can manage in.

‘He can’t handle big hits, like the one from Mathieu Olivier during the Columbus Blue Jackets game’

He’s hardly the first undersized player to go through this learning curve. Smaller players have different strengths and styles, and as such they all have different ways of managing the hits and physicality of elite level hockey. They vary, but generally all of them fall under the broader umbrella I have dubbed ‘the Four S’s’: speed, skill, smarts, and scrap.

• Speed: Some players are simply so fast on the ice their opponent’s don’t even get close to laying a hit. You’ll blink and they’re already 10 feet away. (Think of the late great Johnny Gaudreau, though he had skill and agility in spades too.)
• Skills: A player’s smaller stature can give them a natural edge when it comes to their skating skill and agility on the ice. Even if they’re not the fastest, their edgework, balance, and lower centre of gravity mean they can spin and pivot their way out of trouble. Think Jeff Skinner or Kailer Yamamoto.
• Smarts: Having a strong hockey IQ that lets you read plays and see a hit coming a mile away and avoid it is a huge edge, and being smart and disciplined enough to not make mistakes that lead to risky desperation plays is even better. Think Jared Spurgeon.

• Scrap: Much like the smallest dogs can be the most ferocious, so can undersized players be the grittiest and toughest. They can be utterly tenacious on the puck, shoving their way in along the boards, planting their ground, engaging in puck battles with players 40-50 pounds heavier and emerging victorious, and even laying big hits of their own. Think Logan Stankoven, Brad Marchand, and the Flyers’ own Travis Konecny.

There’s a lot of overlap between these four categories, and particularly great players will have a combination of all of them, but you get the idea. Now Andrae isn’t tall, but he is quite broad. He’s a hair below league average in terms of skating speed, so speed won’t be his way out. While he’s not breaking ankles, he’s a fairly decent skater, and hockey IQ and scrappiness can both be acquired and developed. 

Andrae can utilize a combination of skill, grit, and hockey IQ to survive and thrive in the league as an undersized defenseman, but that’s something that he’s only going to develop through facing NHL-level hits and play.

‘As a young defenseman, his play just isn’t developed enough for the NHL yet’

Last season, this would have been a perfectly valid reason, and in fact it was! When Andrae played his first four games with the Flyers at the beginning of the 2023-24 season, it was obvious he wasn’t quite ready yet and he returned to the AHL for the rest of the season. After that time in the AHL, his performance in training camp this season was much improved, and by the time the regular season began he was looking NHL ready. So far, nothing about the way he’s played has said otherwise to us.

Even with his game regressing somewhat since his stellar play in November, nothing about Andrae’s play screams to us of a player floundering to keep up in the NHL. In his last game against the Kings before being sent down, Andrae had a 72.31 expected goals for percentage at 5-on-5, and despite the Flyers having seven goals against, Andrae wound up with an even zero plus/minus. While plus/minus isn’t a sophisticated or comprehensive stat, it does give a rough idea of the kind of game a player had, and that Kings’ game was one where a young defenseman made a couple of small mistakes, not where he was drowning.

‘That’s just one game– what about his overall performance?’

We’re so glad you asked, because the young Swede has had remarkable numbers this season! At 5 on 5 among Flyers’ players with at least 15 games played, Andrae leads in several key stats. He has the team’s highest Corsi-For percentage (55.13 CF%), the highest goals-for percentage (58.92 GF%), as well as the highest expected goals for percentage (60.84 xGF%). Even when looking at his expected goals by rates instead of by percent, Andrae is leading in expected goals-for per 60 (3.24 xGF/60) and is fifth in expected goals-against per 60 (2.08 xGA/60).

So what do all those numbers we just threw at you tell us about Emil Andrae’s performance? Well, that he’s very good! Yes, it’s only a 20 game sample size, but these numbers are honestly pretty remarkable. They’re telling us what I think most of us already know: that the Flyers are just straight up a better team with Andrae on the ice. With him out there, we’re more likely to be the ones controlling the puck than with anyone else on the team, and we’re generating far more high quality chances than we’re giving up with him than with anyone else.

‘What about his last 3 games before he was scratched?’

Okay, he struggled a bit, particularly when it came to his goals-for percentage, which fell 32.2 percent, and his expected goals-for per 60, which fell by 0.59. He had a tough couple of games, and yet even during that regression, the stats (as well as the eye test!) show that Emil Andrae is still a net positive to this team. If your still-developing defenseman has a bad couple of games, and yet still sees numbers like his CF% go up by 8.8 percent and his xGA/60 drop to a very impressive 0.95, that’s a good sign! It’s also an indication this is just a talented young guy experiencing a slump- not a rookie player drowning.

‘But the powerplay!’ 

Ah yes, we come to our final argument. Andrae has struggled a little on the powerplay at times, it’s true, especially in comparison to more seasoned players on the top unit. But when comparing his powerplay numbers from his peak play in November to his last three games prior to being scratched, many of them have bafflingly improved. He’s progressing somewhat, even with their dreadful powerplay! So if the problem is that Tortorella doesn’t trust Andrae on the powerplay, a solution to that exists, and it’s not the AHL; it’s demoting him to the second unit or taking him off the powerplay all together for a while. 

It’s clear to most people now that the decision to send Emil Andrae down was not one borne out of the reality of his play, because the reality is that his play remains solid and beneficial to the team, despite his slight regression. If it’s about his size, then the AHL isn’t the solution either, and if it’s about his development, then someone should tell Briere, because developing these young defenseman in the NHL has been the plan for a while now! 

No, this is something else; whether it be salary cap reasons, or a sacrifice to keep three goalies up, or if it’s just that Andrae has had the misfortune to become Tortorella’s new redheaded step child. Whatever the reason, Andrae’s performance was not deserving of a demotion, nor was it deserving of a three game scratch. He’s a solid young defenseman who has earned his place in the league and on this Flyers’ roster, and I hope to see him back where he belongs very soon.