Every Champions Trophy scenario explained... and how Aussies can lose and still go through

Three nations have already been eliminated from the Champions Trophy, while there is a three-horse race in Group B for the two remaining vacancies in the semi-finals.

Cricket news 2025: Champions Trophy scenarios, how Australia can qualify, Group B scenarios, video, highlights, fixtures

Having lost both of their opening two group-stage matches, England, Bangladesh and hosts Pakistan have been knocked out of the 50-over tournament, playing for nothing more than pride in their upcoming games. Meanwhile, the semi-finalists from Group A have been decided, with India and New Zealand already booking their spot in the knockouts.

However, the identity of the other two semi-finalists remains up in the air, with South Africa, Australia and Afghanistan fighting over qualification.

Here’s what each of the three nations needs to progress through to the Champions Trophy semi-finals.

SOUTH AFRICA

Sitting atop of the Group B standings, the Proteas are the heavy favourites to progress through to the semi-finals.

Courtesy of their thumping victory over Afghanistan in Karachi last week, South Africa boasts a net run rate of +2.140, which is comfortably higher than their nearest rival.

The Proteas are slated to face England in Karachi on Saturday, and victory against Jos Buttler’s men would be enough to secure qualification for the knockouts. They will also top the Group B standings if they keep their net run rate above Australia, who will face Afghanistan in Lahore on Friday.

However, the South Africans risk elimination if they suffer a heavy defeat to England. In such a scenario, if Afghanistan defeated Australia by a slim margin, it would be feasible for the Proteas to finish third in Group B due to net run rate.

But with their final group-stage match occurring after the Afghanistan vs Australia clash, Temba Bavuma’s men have the added advantage of knowing exactly what result would be required for them to progress through to the semi-finals.

AUSTRALIA

Much like the South Africans, Australia’s path to the semi-finals is clear – beat Afghanistan, and you’re in the knockouts. For that reason, Friday’s match at Gaddafi Stadium serves as a de facto quarter-final for the two competing nations.

There is a chance of rain hitting Lahore on Friday, and if the group-stage match was abandoned, that would be enough for Australia to qualify for the semi-finals. Current predictions suggest heavy rain in the morning before things clear up in the late afternoon.

However, Australia’s campaign would be all but over if they lose to Hashmatullah Shahidi’s men. In such a scenario, the Australians would need England to defeat South Africa by a massive margin so the Proteas’ net run rate takes hammering.

For example, if Australia loses by one run to Afghanistan chasing a 300-run target, England would then need to defeat South Africa by 87 runs in pursuit of the same target for their net run rate to slip below Australia’s. Possible, but unlikely.

Australia's Glenn Maxwell. Photo by Aamir QURESHI / AFP

AFGHANISTAN

Playing their maiden Champions Trophy tournament, it would be a special achievement for underdogs Afghanistan in the Asian nation qualified for the semi-finals.

Having defeated England in a thriller on Wednesday, Afghanistan is now one victory away from progressing through to the knockouts, with a historic triumph over Australia in being enough to qualify for the top four.

However, unlike South Africa and Australia, there is no chance of a semi-finals berth if they lose Friday’s match at Gaddafi Stadium, stuck in third place on two points.

Meanwhile, a washout would give Afghanistan the slimmest chance of progressing to the knockouts, but they would need England to defeat South Africa by 207 runs with the Proteas chasing a 300-run target for that to happen.

THE SEMI-FINALS

Whoever tops the Group B standings will face the loser of Sunday’s Group A match between New Zealand and India in the Champions Trophy semi-finals, while the nation that finishes second will take on the Dubai game’s victor.

Regardless of their position on the Group A standings, India’s semi-final will take place in the United Arab Emirates on Tuesday, while the second semi-final will occur in Lahore on Wednesday.