Falcons mailbag: What’s going to happen with Kirk Cousins and the NFL Draft?

There are lots of Kirk Cousins questions in today’s mailbag, so let’s catch up on where things stand with the Falcons and their former starting quarterback before diving into the details.

Last week, Atlanta let pass what many people thought was its deadline for deciding on Cousins — a roster bonus that kicked in on March 17 that guarantees the quarterback an additional $10 million. That means Cousins will make at least $100 million from the contract he signed with the Falcons just over a year ago. The move could prove costly for team owner Arthur Blank (although that money might ultimately be offset by a Cousins contract with a new team), but it also increases the Falcons’ leverage in potential trade talks involving Cousins.

General manager Terry Fontenot and coach Raheem Morris continue to insist they are OK having Cousins on the roster as the backup to Michael Penix Jr. during the 2025 season, but there’s a long time between now and then.

And now, on to the questions:

Do you expect Kirk Cousins to be traded once the quarterback carousel is done for the year? If so, would you expect the Falcons to eat more of his contract in exchange for capital, or take less capital in exchange for the recipient to eat more of his cap hit? — Simon Y.

Yes, I think Cousins will be traded. Now that the March 17 deadline has passed, there’s no reason for the Falcons to release him, and I don’t believe he’s going to be Penix’s backup in Week 1. Here’s the mental math I think Atlanta is using right now: Four teams that need a starting quarterback (Titans, Giants, Steelers, Browns) minus three available quarterbacks who are viewed as viable starters for 2025 (Cam Ward, Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson) equals somebody desperate for a quarterback when the draft is complete.

This scenario requires three assumptions. First, that Shedeur Sanders isn’t viewed as an immediate starter (which is the whisper campaign that got louder at the NFL combine). Second, that the Titans won’t give Will Levis one more year to figure things out. Third, that no one takes (another) chance on a Joe Flacco or a Carson Wentz. That’s a lot of assumptions, but the Falcons also could end up being the beneficiary of an offseason or training camp injury that would increase someone’s desperation and thus Cousins’ value on the trade market. Assuming the risk of accepting Cousins’ roster bonus bought the Falcons the time for that potential factor to work in their favor.

As for Atlanta being willing to assume some of Cousins’ 2025 salary to make a trade happen, yes, I think they’d be very willing to do that.

What are the chances Atlanta can trade Cousins for a fifth-round or better pick in 2025 or 2026? The meager number of draft picks Atlanta has seems like the biggest drag on its prospects for offseason improvement. — Martin C.

I think your expectations are realistic here, and now that the Falcons have proved they weren’t bluffing about the deadline, it’s reasonable to think they could get a fourth or a fifth for Cousins. NFL insider Josina Anderson reported last week that the Falcons are getting calls from interested teams and the compensation could be as high as a third-round pick. I’ll be shocked if Atlanta gets that in return, though. I think Falcons fans should be thrilled with a fourth-rounder and call a fifth-rounder reasonable.

How excited are you to see Kirk from this past year on Quarterback 2? — Reece C.

I’ll watch it, but I’m not optimistic that it’s going to be enlightening. Most sports “documentaries” have stopped being documentaries. They are entertaining series produced by the people involved or people closely connected to the people involved. (“Quarterback” is produced by NFL Films and Omaha Productions, Peyton Manning’s company.)

I’ll watch this upcoming season of “Quarterback” just like I watched the last one, which I thought was moderately informative about its subjects, but we can’t forget how that first series wrapped up Marcus Mariota’s departure from Atlanta during the 2023 season. It basically didn’t. Mariota was there one episode and gone the next, and there was a ton of drama and context that an old-school documentary could have provided with that situation.

My prediction is it will be the same thing this year. The first two-thirds of the episodes will chronicle Cousins’  feel-good arrival in Atlanta and hot start with the Falcons. Then, we’ll get a two-minute wrap-up of his struggles, a shot or two of him looking solemn, and the series will just move on without him.

It’s a shame from a storytelling perspective because the camera crew that followed Cousins through the 2024 season was around all the time and worked its tail off, hauling tons of cameras and equipment around behind the quarterback. I can’t imagine how many hours of footage had to be edited, and I’m a little sad to think about how much good stuff we will never see.

Do you think signing Jordan Fuller means passing on one of the safeties in the first round? I had somewhat hoped that we might trade down in the first for one of the safeties and additional draft capital and wait for a defensive lineman/edge until the second round. — Rick W.

Why did you choose violence with your pick in the latest The Athletic beat writer mock draft, LOL? — Kristina J.

To Kristina’s question: I guess I should start here with an “apology” for that pick. Not only did I pick South Carolina safety Nick Emmanwori over Georgia safety Malaki Starks, but I left Georgia edge Jalon Walker, Marshall edge Mike Green, Michigan cornerback Will Johnson, Alabama linebacker Jihaad Campbell and Texas A&M Shemar Stewart on the board when I did it. The reason I went with Emmanwori over Starks was the athletic upside. He’s 6-foot-3, 220 pounds, and he ran a 4.38 40-yard dash and had a 43-inch vertical leap at the combine. And, in the interest of full disclosure, I had just been at Emmanwori’s pro day, and the guy really looks the part.

To Rick’s question: Yes, I think the Jordan Fuller signing (which happened about 30 minutes after I sent in that Emmanwori pick) changes the equation. Fuller has started 55 of his 57 career regular games. He can step right in next to Jessie Bates and stabilize that position.

That’s been the theme of all of Atlanta’s three most significant free-agency additions so far — a solid starter but not a flashy addition. Leonard Floyd at edge and Divine Deablo at linebacker are in the same mold. It’s not a strategy that excites a fan base, but it does let Atlanta go into the draft without feeling like it has to fill a specific hole. That means the Falcons have the flexibility to take anyone, although I’ll still be shocked if it’s not an edge rusher, linebacker or defensive back.

What are the chances Jalon Walker slips to 15 AND the Falcons actually take him? — Josh R.

If he’s there, I think the chances are good Atlanta takes him. I know I reference the “Falcons hate the Bulldogs and won’t draft Georgia players” thing pretty frequently, but that’s only because it’s such a hot talking point among UGA fans. I don’t believe it’s based in any fact, and Walker would be an intriguing fit for what new defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich says he wants to build — a uniquely hybrid defense.

Walker can play anywhere from edge to linebacker to defensive back. If teams think that makes him a “tweener” who’s not a great fit at any of those spots, he could fall to No. 15, but if someone falls in love with him as a Swiss Army knife, then he’ll be off the board in the top 10. The Athletic’s Dane Brugler predicted Walker would be Atlanta’s pick in his most recent mock draft, but our consensus big board (which combines the rankings of a wide range of draft analysts) has him at the No. 10 spot. I think he may have the biggest range of any of the first-round guys this year. I could honestly see him go as high as five and as low as the 20s.

Given the Falcons’ free-agent signings to date and the fact we don’t have a nose tackle on the roster, can we expect them to go back to a 4-3 base defense in 2025? — William F.

I think Atlanta views Kentavius Street as a nose tackle or at least capable of playing that spot, so the fact they re-signed him makes me think they are sticking with their 3-4 base, but as defensive coordinators have been telling us for several years now, we need to put a little less emphasis on the idea that there are 3-4 teams and 4-3 teams. Most teams bounce back and forth between even and odd fronts throughout the game, and for some reason, I take Ulbrich at his word that he’s going to try to build something unique. (Which is weird because I most often assume that coordinators who say “multiple” all the time are trying to just get on to the next question without talking about how they actually plan to play. We’ll see.)

Is it time to bring Matthew Judon back on a low average annual value deal? With Leonard Floyd, Judon, a draft pick and Ulbrich, this could be a decent pass rush. Are the Falcons open to bringing him back? — Paul S.

I don’t think they’ve closed that door, but neither side seemed eager to make it happen when the season ended. Those things tend to change over time if a player doesn’t get the other offers he thinks he might or a team can’t find a suitable replacement. At the moment, the Falcons have Leonard Floyd, Arnold Ebiketie, Bralen Trice, DeAngelo Malone and Khalid Kareem, so it’s not like they are stocked at the position. Given Judon’s age and production last season, I think he could still be on the free-agency market after the draft, so I would expect Atlanta to see how that shakes out before extending him an offer.

Hopefully, this question isn’t relevant for many, many years, but what do you think the plan is for team ownership once the admirable Arthur Blank is no longer with us? I doubt he would ever sell, so is there any indication of who ownership transfers to and what they might do? — Kevin B.

Arthur’s son Josh was hired by AMB Sports & Entertainment in August as vice president of executive strategy, and he has been very visible around the team since then. Josh Blank, who played soccer at Elon University from 2016 to 2019, worked in the NFL office for four years before officially joining his dad’s company. It seems pretty clear that he is being groomed to run things when Arthur is no longer in charge, but I would also imagine that all of Arthur’s children will have some equity in the team.

The NFL requires every owner to provide a detailed succession plan and update it annually to avoid any messy situations like what the Broncos went through after former owner Pat Bowlen’s death in 2019.