The Falcons sit in complete control of their postseason destiny despite falling in back-to-back games before their bye week.
While Atlanta watched from their couch, their division rivals throttled the Giants. The Buccaneers moved just one game back from the first-place Falcons, and there’s a lot on the line this weekend.
Both games — Falcons vs. Chargers and Buccaneers vs. Panthers — are two of the most impactful matchups of Week 13 in regard to postseason odds, according to The Athletic.
“The Falcons, on the other hand, pretty much have to win the NFC South if they want to make the playoffs, as the NFC wild-card picture features a lot of strong teams. They’re currently one game up on the Buccaneers, but that lead feels a little stronger due to their 4-1 division mark and two head-to-head victories over the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay is currently 1-2 in the division. This matchup with the Chargers is likely their second-hardest remaining game, so a win would go a long way in securing the division crown.”
The Falcons currently have a 78.1% chance of a postseason berth, but that drops by 10% with a loss on a Sunday and rises by 10% with a victory. It’s a massive game for the Falcons to get back on track; however, the Bucs have the biggest playoff leverage of the week.
“The Bucs could see their playoff odds swing by more than 31% depending on the outcome Sunday. Factor in that the Falcons have a tough game this week, and you could see an even bigger swing for Tampa Bay. It could be an incredible turnaround for the Bucs, whose playoff odds hit a season-low 15% on Nov. 15. But if things break their way Sunday, combined with their light schedule the rest of the way, they’d have legitimate hope of making the playoffs as we approach December.”
If the Panthers can somehow pull off the incredible upset, the Bucs’ playoff chances would drop from 46.9% all the way to 24.8%, but it’ll rise by 10% if they win. There’s a lot on the line for the Falcons this weekend.
