ESPN’s Matt Miller cited him as the best selection in the 2025 NFL Draft.
Yahoo Sports graded him out as an A+ pick. .
And PFF called him one of draft weekend’s biggest steals.
“Him” is Chicago Bears rookie receiver Luther Burden III, a sure-handed, chip-on-the-shoulder former Mizzou Tiger who could be one of your fantasy draft’s coolest picks.
The Case For
At Missouri, Burden was primarily a slot receiver, where, in his three seasons, he racked up 2,283 yards on 192 receptions (11.8 yards per reception), finding paydirt on 21 occasions. His career drop rate was a scootch under 5%.
The 6’0”, 205-pounder was at his best during his 2023 sophomore year, when he racked up 1,212 yards and nine touchdowns. There was a significant statistical drop-off in 2024, when he managed just 676 yards and six tuddies…but that was far from Burden’s fault, as he saw 25 less targets than the previous campaign, and the Missouri passing offense ranked 64th (!) in the NCAA.
Point being, Burden proved that he can produce when given the opportunity in a competent, high-powered offense,
In Chicago, under the tutelage of head coach Ben Johnson, the opportunity, competence, and power should be there.
Last season as Detroit's offensive coordinator, Johnson targeted his slot receivers 163 times, 132 of which went for receptions…and those passes came courtesy of a very-good-but-not-great quarterback by the name of Jared Goff.
Yes, Goff has had a late-career resurgence, but one has to wonder if he actually made a leap, or if he thrived due to the Lions’pass-happy system. Let’s say, for the sake of argument, that it was the latter; let’s say Johnson’s scheme brought out the best in Goff.
In theory, Bears quarterback Caleb Williams is better suited for today’s NFL than Goff, in that he’s far more mobile than the vet, so—again, in theory—that means Williams would be an even better fit for a Johnson scheme.
If that's even somewhat the case, Chicago’s receiving corps (Burden, D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze) should eat, and given Johnson’s predilection for feeding slot receivers, Burden’s target ceiling could be as high as 75.
Some quick math tells us that, taking his 5% drop rate into account, the rookie might be good for 65 catches—not a bad PPR number from a WR3.
But wait. There’s more.
Arguably Burden’s best on-field trait is his ability to extend plays—multiple scouts have referred to him as a YAC monster—so those 65 catches could amount to a good 200 yards more than you might project.
Unless…
The Case Against
Two questions: Will Burden, indeed, get sufficient opportunities to make a fantasy impact, or will Chicago’s plethora of pass catchers kill any chances at consistent volume? And will his rookie-ness ding him?
The opportunity issue will be an ongoing thing. After Burden, Moore, and Odunze, tight ends Colston Loveland and Cole Kmet will suck up their fair share of targets, as will whoever Johnson sticks in the backfield.
Here’s how Detroit’s target division looked in 2024:
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR1) – 141 targets
- Jameson Williams (WR2) – 91 targets
- Sam LaPorta (TE1) – 83 targets
- Jahmyr Gibbs (RB1) – 63 targets
- Tim Patrick (WR3) – 44 targets
- David Montgomery (RB2) – 38 targets
The Bears head into the season with Moore as their ostensible WR1, but if Odunze makes a leap, a supplantation is distinctly possible. And in Loveland and Kmet, Johnson has two tight ends who can consistently catch the rock, further cutting into Burden’s chances.
As for that whole rookie thing, here’s what we’ve seen from some notable 21st Century second-round wide receivers in their freshman year:
Anquan Boldin (2003, Pick 54 – Arizona Cardinals)
- Receptions: 101
- Receiving Yards: 1,377
- Touchdowns: 8
Eddie Royal (2008, Pick 42 – Denver Broncos)
- Receptions: 91
- Receiving Yards: 980
- Touchdowns: 5
Jarvis Landry (2014, Pick 63 – Miami Dolphins)
- Receptions: 84
- Receiving Yards: 758
- Touchdowns: 5
Chris Chambers (2001, Pick 52 – Miami Dolphins)
- Receptions: 48
- Receiving Yards: 883
- Touchdowns: 7
Devin Funchess (2015, Pick 41 – Carolina Panthers)
- Receptions: 31
- Receiving Yards: 473
- Touchdowns: 5
Alec Pierce (2022, Pick 53 – Indianapolis Colts)
- Receptions: 41
- Receiving Yards: 593
- Touchdowns: 2
Boldin notwithstanding, that doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in any second-round rook, does it? (FWIW, Boldin is a 2025 Hall of Fame finalist, so it would stand to reason that his maiden season was, in a word, sick.) Burden could be Boldin or he could be Funchess.
We’ll have a pretty good idea by Week 3, methinks—at which point, Burden will no longer be on your waiver wire.
To Draft or Not To Draft?
Fake football players are already on Team Burden, with Fantasy Pros tabbing as their WR46 in their April 30 ADP list, two spots behind Stefon Diggs, and seven in back of fellow rookie receiver, Matthew Golden.
All the numbers tell us that the Bears’ rook well worth a late-round flyer on your season-long squad and definite inclusion on your dynasty team.
