Fantasy Football: 3 Rookie Running Backs To Underperform ADP

Smart fantasy football managers in re-draft leagues should tell themselves every summer -- "Don't get too excited about the incoming rookie class."

But it's so easy to fall into the trap. They are all new toys, and every fan wants to see how the college stars transition into the NFL.

The more fantasy managers fall into that trap, though, the more likely they will overdraft a rookie.

That's not to say don't draft rookies. They can provide a lot of value. But it can be risky being in a position to count on starter value from a rookie every week.

With that in mind, here are three rookie running backs most likely to be overdrafted and underperform based on ADP in re-draft formats.

I want to be clear. I'm not saying don't draft Jeanty. There's a lot to like about him.

Jeanty was an absolute star at Boise State, rushing for 4,769 yards in just three seasons. Last year, he led the nation with 2,601 rushing yards and scored 29 touchdowns while finishing second in Heisman Trophy voting.

He also could have underrated value in PPR formats. Jeanty had 43 catches for 569 receiving yards during his sophomore season in 2023.

But based on his current ADP, managers have to draft him in the second round. That means, in 12-team leagues, owners have to feel comfortable with him either in the RB1 spot or as an RB2 on a team that doesn't draft a receiver until the third round.

According to Fantasy Data, Jeanty has a higher ADP than Christian McCaffrey, Josh Jacobs and Jonathan Taylor.

Hampton is widely considered the No. 2 rookie fantasy running back. To draft him in 12-team formats, managers have to target him in the fourth round.

Similar to the situation with Jeanty, that's early based on who else is expected to be available. According to Fantasy Data, Kenneth Walker III, Alvin Kamara and David Montgomery all have a higher ADP than the Chargers rookie.

The biggest concern with Hampton, though, is the presence of veteran Najee Harris, who Los Angeles signed in free agency. In four years with the Steelers, Harris never missed a game and ran for four 1,000-yard seasons.

Harris averaged 3.9 yards per carry with the Steelers, so it's possible Hampton will provide a lot more upside. At North Carolina, Hampton ran for 5.7 yards per carry. But the question is will Hampton receive enough opportunities to fulfill his lofty expectations based on his ADP.

Hampton led the ACC in rushing yards in 2023 and 2024. During 2024, he ran for 1,660 yards and 15 touchdowns in 12 games.

I was very tempted to go with Cleveland Browns rookie Quinshon Judkins as the third running back for this list.

While Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders are stealing all the headlines, the Browns also doubled up on running back in the 2025 NFL Draft. For Judkins to be fantasy relevant, he will have to beat out fellow rookie Dylan Sampson. Veteran Jerome Ford is still on the Cleveland roster as well.

But managers can get Judkins in the seventh round. Harvey's ADP has him as a fourth-round pick with an ADP even higher than Hampton.

The reason for that is the apparent lack of depth in Denver's running back corps. Last year's starter, Javonte Williams, signed with the Dallas Cowboys in free agency.

But running backs Audric Estime and Jaleel McLaughlin will each return for Denver. They each averaged at least 4.1 yards per carry last season.

Harvey might not have a cake walk to the starting role. If he doesn't, it's hard to justify drafting him around the same time James Cook and Chase Brown are expected to go off the board in fantasy re-drafts.