Fantasy Football Bust Alert: Eagles RB Saquon Barkley Is Due For Regression In 2025

Saquon Barkley was a league-winner in 2024, racking up a staggering 2,283 total yards and seven 30+ point fantasy performances en route to a monster season for the Eagles. But with touchdown vultures like Jalen Hurts and natural regression looming, fantasy managers in 2025 must weigh elite upside against potential volatility when drafting Barkley.

Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles

The change in the coaching staff for the Giants in 2022 led to Barkley receiving 352 touches, resulting in career-highs in carries (295), rushing yards (1,312), and rushing touchdowns (13). He had nine plays of 20 yards or more, with three reaching the 40-yard mark. New York struggled to get him in space in the passing game (5.9 yards per catch). Barkley rushed for over 100 yards in four games (18/164/1, 31/146, 24/110, and 35/152/1) but none after Week 10.

In 2023, Barkley posted an impact game in Week 2 (92 combined yards with two touchdowns and six catches on 23 targets), but he missed the next three matchups due to a right high-ankle sprain that lingered for the remainder of the year. New York gave him 20 touches or more in six of his final 12 starts, leading to 1,077 combined yards with eight touchdowns and 32 catches (15.73 FPPG in PPR formats). 

His best fantasy value of the year came in Week 2 (27.20), Week 11 (30.00), Week 14 (24.10), and Week 18 (23.70). On the downside, Barkley posted short outcomes in fantasy points four times (7.60, 6.20, 5.70, and 8.80) over his final eight games. He finished 13th in running back scoring (225.70) in PPR formats.

The wise investment in Barkley paid off handsomely for Philadelphia last year. He was poised to break the record for most rushing yards in a season, albeit with a few more games, but Barkley sat out Week 18 to rest for the postseason.  The Eagles gave him 378 touches, leading to 2,283 combined yards, the 13th highest in the history of the NFL.

Barkley’s explosiveness was shown in his career-best 5.8 yards per carry, highlighted by 17 runs of 20 yards or more, with seven rushes reaching the 40-yard mark. He also made four big plays catching the ball. He rushed for over 14 of his 20 starts while tacking on 574 combined yards in the postseason with five touchdowns and 13 catches on another 104 touches. 

Despite his fantastic results, Jahmyr Gibbs outscored Barkley in fantasy points (356.30), thanks to a big game (23/139/3 with five catches for 31 yards and a score) in Week 18. The Eagles' stud back finished with seven impact games in fantasy points (33.20, 33.60, 33.90, 33.80, 46.20, 39.20, and 31.20). He rushed for over 200 yards in two matchups (26/255/2 and 26/205/2), both coming against the Rams.

Saquon Barkley 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook

Barkley’s lower ceiling in catches helps other backs close the gap on his potential in fantasy points, and Jalen Hurts snipes about half of Philadelphia’s rushing touchdowns. As a result, Bijan Robinson has a slight edge as the first running back drafted in 2025, followed closely by Jahmyr Gibbs.

Buying players after career seasons tends to be a losing proposition, especially when they fall into the all-time great category. It will be challenging to get away from Barkley and the Eagles’ high-profile run game in 2025. Even with a 25% regression in overall yardage (571), he would still gain over 1,700 combined yards with double-digit touchdowns and a floor of 30 catches, putting his floor at a top 10 running back. I can’t predict when a player will get hurt, so my best advice would be to buy his handcuff and hope he's electric again his year.