Though it’s a fairly low bar to make a wildcard spot in the Eastern Conference this season (the eighth-seeded Montreal Canadiens are pacing for 89 points), the Philadelphia Flyers are all but mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. They haven’t won a game in regulation or overtime since Feb. 25, and have one of the worst records in the NHL since New Year’s.
There’s value to the last few games of even a disappointing season. But many fans are already looking ahead to the 2025 NHL Draft, hoping the Orange and Black get their hands on a top pick. To be fair, it’d be terrific news for the rebuild—Matvei Michkov and Travis Konecny could use the help.
The Flyers have a 28-34-8 record for 64 points, sitting fifth-last in the league’s standings. With a dozen games to spare, where is the likeliest place they finish? Could they move up a few spots, hurting their draft selection? Or is it possible they move down even further, increasing their odds of acquiring much-needed talent?
Flyers Unlikely to “Sabotage” Draft Pick
Anything can happen with 14.63% of the season left to spare, you might be thinking. In reality, the Flyers probably won’t be moving up the standings and “sabotaging” their draft choice. The math backs it up.
First, a shoutout to Alexander Appleyard is in order here—he’s done great work on this topic over the last couple of weeks. I’ll be expanding a bit on his ideas.
There’s a chunk of teams between 21st and 25th in the NHL’s standings, separated by a hair in terms of points percentage. The Flyers, sitting in 28th place, are unlikely to catch any of them. Let me explain.
The Boston Bruins and Anaheim Ducks are tied with a .493 points percentage, making them the worst two teams in the sample (meaning, the Flyers are the “most likely” to catch them). With 12 and 13 games remaining, respectively, let’s assume Boston and Anaheim have a dismal finish to the regular season with a .380 points percentage apiece. In this hypothetical, they’d each finish the regular season with approximately 78 points.
Over their last 12 contests, let’s have the Flyers go on a bit of a run. Despite having a .316 points percentage since Jan. 29, they increase that to .600 in the final stretch. That’d put them at about 78 points—a stalemate. However, Philadelphia has won only 17 games in regulation to the Ducks’ 22 and Bruins’ 23, the NHL’s first standings tiebreaker. So, the Orange and Black would fall below both squads, even if this almost-perfect scenario were to play out.
It’s worth noting that the Ducks have been trending slightly upward, while the Bruins have been just as bad as the Flyers since the 2025 calendar year began. Still, the five points and six regulation wins that separate the two are more than you’d think. In the situation I outlined, the Flyers would have a record of about 7-5-0 in their last dozen matchups, while the Bruins would be about 4-7-1. Yet, that wouldn’t be enough.
The New York Rangers, Columbus Blue Jackets, and Detroit Red Wings aren’t significantly far off from the Bruins and Ducks record-wise. Still, the gap is big enough to dismiss the idea. To simply match the 78 points mentioned above, they’d all need points percentages below .290 for the rest of their campaigns.
Can the Flyers Move Up?
Unfortunately for any Matthew Schaefer and Michael Misa fans (there’s a good chance they go first and second overall), the bottom two spots in the NHL standings are all but wrapped up. The Chicago Blackhawks and San Jose Sharks are 15 and 19 points below the Flyers, making them virtually impossible to catch. Are the third- and fourth-worst spots attainable, though? Possibly.
The Nashville Predators were projected to make the playoffs this season by many. But they find themselves with the third-worst record in the NHL. They have 58 points in 68 games, despite having 82 points through that many games last season. The question is, can the Flyers snatch their spot?
When giving Philadelphia the somewhat favorable timeline of the 4 Nations Face-Off to today, they’d place just ahead of Nashville. If the Flyers continue playing at their .346 points percentage since the tournament concluded, they would finish the season with about 72 points. On the other hand, if the Predators keep up their .464 points percentage, they’d have about 71 points by season’s end.
Never say never, but that path doesn’t seem too realistic. Catching the Buffalo Sabres, however, could be in the cards. With 60 points in 67 contests for a .448 points percentage, they’re right on the Flyers’ tail (.457 points percentage).
What’s interesting here is that the clubs play one another twice more this season, including the season finale on April 17. It all could come down to that game.
Final Verdict: Flyers Don’t Move Much
The takeaway here is that, if things continue to go south, the Flyers will move down one spot to the fourth-worst record in the NHL. If they improve, the seventh-worst record is really all they can rise up to. The team that holds the position now, the Pittsburgh Penguins, sit four points ahead of the Orange and Black with one more game played, so even that spot may be too far gone. The Seattle Kraken could fall behind, with one more point than Philadelphia in the same amount of games.
The 12 games the Flyers have left may seem like plenty, but there’s not a lot that can happen in that stretch. Expect the Flyers to finish somewhere between the fourth- and seventh-worst record in the NHL by the time the season is over.
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