After scoring 27 points in his first 27 games, 20-year-old rookie Matvei Michkov has cooled down to more reasonable totals for the Philadelphia Flyers. Even amidst a scoring “slump”, his 2025-26 season seems like it could be a breakout campaign when looking at the numbers a bit deeper. Let’s discuss.
Michkov Can Explode with More Usage
Two factors point to Michkov taking a huge step in 2025-26: his youth and ice-time progression. With a season in North America under his belt and considering the natural progression of players his age, Michkov will likely be more productive anyway—potentially to a significant degree.
Ice time may be even more essential, though. But first, let’s establish why he deserves more of it (at least when next season rolls around).
In several of the most important per-60 metrics that measure offensive ability, Michkov is a formidable talent. His playmaking has been superb and his rush offense sticks out:
Objectively speaking, the only forward on the Flyers who would get first-line minutes on a contender is Travis Konecny. Unfortunately for Michkov, just 18.02% of his ice time at 5-on-5 has come next to the star forward. Instead, he’s been stapled to middle-six players who can’t take advantage of his offensive output as much.
Sticking with the Konecny point, the differential in their ice time is notable. If the Flyers’ regular forwards played as much as he did, these would be the top-five team leaders in point-scoring:
Perhaps Michkov isn’t ready for 20:35 of ice time per game. That’s a fair assessment. But he’s a better scorer than his 34 points in 48 games suggest, even if that’s pretty fantastic for someone his age. By the time he is ready for first-line ice usage—maybe between 18 and 19 minutes—those numbers will skyrocket.
If you couple improvements in progression and ice time (which includes playing with better linemates), Michkov’s 58 points per 82 games this season could be a far greater number next season. He should only go up from here. The only question is if head coach John Tortorella will enable that (assuming the 66-year-old doesn’t step down), but it’d certainly be in his best interest to do so.
Michkov Is Thriving at 5-on-5
Michkov’s 5-on-5 scoring rate (1.53 points per game) doesn’t jump out when compared to players his age. To be fair, it’s ahead of 2022 third-overall pick Logan Cooley from last season (1.48 points per game), but it’s an unspectacular total nonetheless.
However, a lot of that has to do with poor puck luck. In reality, Michkov has been tremendous at generating chances at 5-on-5 play.
Since 2007-08, there have been 6,060 forward seasons with at least 500 minutes of ice time. Among them, Michkov’s relative expected goals for per 60 (meaning, the expected goals he has generated relative to his teammates) rank 80th. Below is a visualization of that, with age also being plotted:
If you’re not a proponent of advanced stats, then the gibberish metric I just mentioned probably means nothing to you. But it’s worth noting that Michkov is one of six players between the ages of 18 and 20 on this list with a season of at least 0.50 relative expected goals for per 60. The others are the following: Sidney Crosby, John Tavares, Connor McDavid, Andrei Svechnikov, and Brady Tkachuk.
Especially in recent weeks, Michkov has been on fire regarding chance generation. He has profoundly impacted offense, which is a top-end trait. The only issue has been getting those pucks in the back of the net, but that part will come naturally if he keeps performing at a high level.
With Michkov settling in at 5-on-5, it’s fair to think that he could promptly become an elite scorer. He’s not perfect, but he’s establishing good habits—this is inspiring for his future. What’s also promising is that he’s victimizing “elite” competition the most, as defined by PuckIQ.
If the Flyers can acquire a bit more talent and extend Michkov’s leash in 2025-26, it could be a season to remember for him. It may even put them in contender status for the Eastern Conference depending on how serious they are about improving, but that’s a conversation for another time.
