Flyers Should Follow Maple Leafs’ 2024 Offseason Approach to Goaltending

In a perfect world, none of these guys are playing much more than 30 NHL games in a season, instead sheltered by a high-end starter. In Kolosov’s case, perhaps he’s playing in the American Hockey League (AHL). But what other options do the Flyers have than to play the hand they’ve been given? Limiting the usage of guys who can’t handle the starter lifestyle isn’t much of a choice at this point. It’s killing any upside the Orange and Black might have.

Identifying the Impact of Goaltending on Wins

MoneyPuck’s model is useful here. It says that the Flyers’ chances of winning each game are lessened by 4.86% solely from their goaltending. Their 12^th-ranked expected goal share hasn’t been enough to save them—making the playoffs, much less doing anything in them, is a challenge with their roster construction.

The Flyers are dead-last in goals saved above expected, which is deja vu from the second half of last season. Theoretically, their goal differential would be increased by around 25 with league-average play between the pipes:

Expected goals aren’t a perfect indicator of actual goals, but they get the job done. The metric suggests that the Flyers could be a lot better than they actually are. MoneyPuck themselves project that Philadelphia is on pace to lose eight standings points when all is said and done—a detriment to their playoff odds in a tight Eastern Conference.

The Flyers can cross their fingers and hope for the best in 2025-26 and beyond, but that doesn’t seem very proactive. What might be a smart course of action?

What the Maple Leafs Did

Look no further than the Toronto Maple Leafs and their 2024 offseason. Now, Joseph Woll has become a decent starter for them, but they made one change that surged their upside: replacing Ilya Samsonov with Anthony Stolarz.

In 2023-24, Toronto had a tandem of Samsonov and Woll for most of the season. The former’s .890 save percentage in 40 games, however, held them back immensely. Led by an inefficient puck-stopper, even the Maple Leafs’ elite offense was unable to get them home-ice advantage in the playoffs. They fell to the Boston Bruins in an overtime Game 7. Samsonov had a save percentage of .896 in five appearances.

So, general manager Brad Treliving decided he wasn’t going to let that happen again. He acquired the Florida Panthers’ unproven but undeniably impressive Stolarz, who backed up Sergei Bobrovsky with a league-best .925 save percentage and 2.03 goals-against average (among qualified goaltenders).

Stolarz has had some tough injury luck this season, but his impact has been apparent when healthy. From the start of the 2024-25 campaign until an injury on Dec. 12, the Maple Leafs only allowed 2.53 goals per game—that was second-best in the NHL. Saving 14.00 goals above expected, they ranked third. Since the injury, they are 27^th and 23^rd in those respective metrics. Still, they have the fourth-best record in the league.

Making the shift from Samsonov to Stolarz didn’t take much. Toronto let the former walk and signed the latter to a $2.5 million cap-hit deal for two seasons. Pretty reasonable, right? For such a great turnaround, although in a small sample, that’s some terrific business by Treliving.

Why the Flyers Should Repeat the Process & How They’d Do It

I’ve written about it before, but it’s worth reiterating: the Flyers are in goaltending limbo. While it’s responsible for quite a few of their troubles, what can they really do about it? They’re awaiting the arrival of Egor Zavragin from the KHL, who is putting up superstar numbers for a 19-year-old. Under contract through 2026-27, however, it’s unlikely he’s going to be a Flyer anytime soon (and it’s not like the Matvei Michkov situation, either—even if it were on the table, he’d be too young to come right away). Possessing some interesting potential is Carson Bjarnason, but he’s also 19.

So, the Flyers can’t really acquire a long-term starter. But they also shouldn’t leave their goaltending untouched for the next two-and-a-half calendar years and expect Zavragin, Bjarnason, and Kolosov to save them. To me, the solution is evident: replicate the Maple Leafs’ 2024 offseason.

Now, you’re probably not going to get another Stolarz on the market. To be clear, his .927 save percentage this season might not be a sustainable mark—Toronto’s strategy isn’t foolproof. Still, this is the path for the Flyers to make the necessary transition from a rebuilder in the murky middle to a contending hockey team. Goaltending alone won’t do that, but it’s one of the most important items on their to-do list.

A short-term option with a high upside will be the Flyers’ friend. No, they shouldn’t pay premium assets and commit to an elite starter. Rather, having someone who can handle a higher workload of games will be a good compromise. As they wait for their youngsters (Zavragin especially) to become battle-ready, it’s better to make a move than do nothing. Seeing as the front office preaches its “culture” time and time again, winning games is in their best interest.

My vision is that the Flyers have Ersson as the backup (he has better numbers than Fedotov) and bring in a starter who can give them about 40 games. Low-risk, high-reward is the game plan. Karel Vejmelka, who ranks ninth in goals saved above expected among all netminders this season, is the kind of player I have in mind. He was supposed to be the Utah Hockey Club’s backup but has become their starter.

Vejmelka had a strong 2022-23 campaign with the Arizona Coyotes but it might not have seemed that way with their defensive woes. He took a step back last season but has re-emerged as an NHL starter. Utah could very well bring him back, but if he were on the open market, that’d be a reasonable gamble. Those are the under-the-radar guys to keep an eye out for.

The Flyers are in an awkward position regarding their goaltending, but there is a solution for them. In my eyes, they should copy the Maple Leafs’ approach to the 2024 offseason and acquire a low-risk, high-reward netminder to ease the burden on Ersson, Fedotov, and Kolosov.