Former Avalanche Winger Still Available Following Career Year

Former Colorado Avalanche forward Joel Kiviranta entered free agency poised to cash in. The 29-year-old, two-way winger recorded a career best 16 goals last season in Colorado in addition to playing a significant role as a penalty killer.

One month into free agency, and Kiviranta remains available. There's seemingly been no interest from teams around the league, and as August approaches, a contract becomes increasingly less likely. The most possible outcome is that he lands a professional tryout (PTO) agreement and has to earn a one-year contract in training camp.

How does this happen? Free agency is usually a time when teams are emboldened to overspend and place unearned hope in players. The Boston Bruins gave Tanner Jeannot, a player with 20 cumulative goals over the last four seasons, a five-year contract with an average salary north of $3 million. Yet, Kiviranta will settle for a tryout and a shot.

One thing teams might be banking on is that the 2024 production was a flash in the pan. And that might be the case. Over his first five NHL campaigns, his best offensive output was eight goals and 11 points. The 12 point jump last year is notable, but not necessarily sustainable.

Some data from last season supports this theory. The first statistic is the dreaded shooting percentage. Last year, Kiviranta's shooting percentage skyrocketed. He attempted 160 shots and landed 84 on goal. Of those 84 shots on goal, he scored 16 times, giving him a shooting percentage of 19%. For reference, 9 to 12% is where players tend to sit on a yearly basis. Kiviranta's career shooting percentage is 10.9%, meaning he's likely to come back to the mean in the upcoming years.

MoneyPuck's season data only adds to this conundrum. They break down recorded shot attempts and shots on goal into high, medium and low danger. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the overwhelming majority of his shot attempts and shots on goal last year were considered low-danger. Seventy-one of his 160 attempted shots came from low-danger areas. While any shot on goal can create a scoring opportunity in theory, it's not a recipe for consistent scoring success.

Teams are likely keyed into this fact and the rest of the analytics on Kiviranta, and it's costing him. He's a solid player, one who could fortify a team's fourth line. He's not a top-six winger by any stretch, and shouldn't be paid like one. But his career season in 2024 has done nothing to earn him his next contract this offseason.