There are a lot of positives in the Cubs’ favor.
It’s been widely assumed that whenever the Chiba Lotte Marines of Japan’s NPB post Roki Sasaki so he can come to MLB next year, he’ll sign with the Dodgers.
Or if not, perhaps the Padres.
This posting isn’t likely to happen for a few weeks, because delaying the posting will allow teams to use their 2025 international bonus pools to make Sasaki an offer. That means more money for Sasaki (even though it’s not nearly market value) and, not coincidentally, more money for the Marines, who will get a 20 percent posting fee.
For Sasaki’s part, there’s no “foregone conclusion” about what team he’ll sign with:
According to FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen, Sasaki’s representatives are indicating to teams that his destination is the opposite of a foregone conclusion.
“As I was texting around the industry over the weekend,” Longenhagen said on the Effectively Wild podcast, “the sense is that Sasaki’s people have said to teams ... ‘this is not a foregone thing, make your pitch — even you, the Minnesota Twins who have $20,000 left in your bonus pool.’”
So why not the Cubs?
In this article by Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma in The Athletic, the writers lay out several factors that would appear to give the Cubs a very good chance of signing Sasaki.
Here, I’ll look at those factors and add my thoughts.
“We want to be a destination for Japanese players,” Hoyer said last winter. “I think we treat them incredibly well. We’re willing to go above and beyond to make sure their transition goes really smoothly. We probably made some mistakes along the way and improved some things with Seiya. Our hope is that it becomes Seiya and Shota and many more.”
COMMENT: There’s no doubt this is true. The Cubs have done the “above and beyond” and more and it appears that Seiya Suzuki and Shōta Imanaga feel right at home in Chicago. Both have performed at or above expectations and have become fan favorites.
The article mentions that Jed Hoyer was part of the ultimately successful push to sign Yu Darvish, along with then-President of Baseball Operations Theo Epstein, back in 2018. Then it continues:
Hoyer, who’s now the president of baseball operations for the Cubs, is among the high-ranking executives who have traveled to Japan to watch Sasaki pitch for the Chiba Lotte Marines in recent years. Sasaki’s representation includes Joel Wolfe of the Wasserman agency, which counts Darvish and Suzuki among its many clients.
COMMENT: Having Sasaki’s agent already being the agent who helped negotiate Suzuki’s and Darvish’s contract with the Cubs can only help matters, I think. Further, the article notes that Darvish even gave positive reviews for the Cubs to Suzuki before he signed with the Cubs in March 2022. And:
Darvish is considered a kind of godfather figure to this generation of Japanese players. The Cubs are in such good standing with Darvish that pitching coach Tommy Hottovy reached out to him after the team signed Imanaga last winter, asking for advice on how to handle the assimilation period. Darvish has consistently praised Hottovy and the team’s pitching infrastructure for an individualized approach and an ability to maximize players’ strengths.
COMMENT: I’m not a big fan of Tommy Hottovy, but if Darvish likes him, that’s a real point in Hottovy’s favor. Clearly, the Cubs pitching infrastructure worked for Imanaga, and having Craig Counsell as his manager also helped. Counsell carefully managed Imanaga’s workload, even as Shōta threw a team-leading 173⅓ innings. Many of us were disappointed to not see Imanaga start the last game of the season, as it would have been his rotation turn, but in hindsight that was the right call, to keep him healthy for 2025 and beyond.
Even though Shohei Ohtani did not sign with the Cubs when he came to MLB in 2018, I think this is important:
Back in 2017, the Cubs were one of seven finalists granted an audience with Ohtani and his camp at Creative Artist Agency’s headquarters in Los Angeles. All of the other teams were either located on the West Coast and/or able to offer the two-way superstar consistent at-bats as a designated hitter in the American League. Though Ohtani picked the Los Angeles Angels, the Cubs felt like they were making inroads in this market and sharpening their presentations.
COMMENT: It is entirely possible that had the National League had the DH at the time, Ohtani might have signed with the Cubs. Remember, at the time the Cubs had been in three straight NLCS and were only one year past a World Series win. On the other hand, if there had been a NL DH in 2017, Ohtani might have signed with the Dodgers instead of the Angels. But at least the Cubs were in the conversation.
The Athletic article concludes:
For comparison, Sasaki is younger than Cade Horton, the organization’s top pitching prospect who had been selected with the seventh pick in the 2022 draft. And considering how the Cubs operated when they had so much young, cost-controlled talent on their 2016 World Series team, Sasaki’s presence could open the floodgates.
“He’s an amazing player,” Imanaga said through an interpreter near the end of the season. “He has potential and skills that people will be envious of. Some stuff you’re just born with. He has some of that along with the work ethic and everything. He’s a great player.”
COMMENT: That’s a fascinating comparison. Most of us here are excited about what Horton might bring to the Cubs — and to get a potential similar pitcher at essentially the same age (Sasaki is younger, but only by a couple of months), for what would be similar to a signing bonus for a draft pick, would instantly give the Cubs a solid MLB pitcher.
Many of you rightly criticize Jed Hoyer for being, in the word I used in this article last month about Cubs management, “timid.” In many ways, yes, he has been that. On the other hand, signing Dansby Swanson wasn’t timid. Neither was taking a chance on Imanaga, who has been a revelation.
Now, it’s obviously not all in Hoyer’s control over where Sasaki signs. As has been written in many places, money is not going to make this decision, especially if Sasaki’s posting is delayed until after the 2025 international bonus pools take effect. In that case, all 30 teams have pretty much the same amount available, although per this Baseball America article, some teams have a bit more than others. (The Cubs are in the tier with the third-highest pool, as shown.)
Mooney and Sharma’s article cites several very good reasons why Sasaki might choose the Cubs. Let’s hope Hoyer and his team makes their best pitch to him and agent Joel Wolfe, and that we can welcome Sasaki to a blue pinstripe uniform in 2025.
