Matt Coronato's blockbuster new contract extension with the Calgary Flames has made Tyson Foerster that much more expensive for the Philadelphia Flyers to keep.
Coronato, 22, signed a seven-year, $45.5 million contract ($6.5 million AAV) with the Flames Saturday, tying him down in Calgary through the 2031-32 season on the heels of a breakout 24-goal, 47-point campaign.
This was also Coronato's first full season in the NHL; last year, the Greenlawn, N.Y., native scored three goals and nine points in only 34 NHL games.
Coronato's contract, does, however, set the stage for the Flyers and Foerster, as the latter is a restricted free agent and due for a new contract on July 1.
Foerster, 23, is slightly older than Coronato, but with his 25 goals this season, Foerster has reached the 20-goal threshold in each of his first two full seasons in the NHL with room for plenty more.
Even despite Foerster's modest point-producing exploits (43 points in Year 2 vs. Coronato's 47 in Year 1), his elite defensive play and contributions on the power play and penalty kill make him equally valuable to the Flyers, if not more than Coronato is to the Flames.
Among the 13 forward lines in the NHL that played 500 or more minutes together, Foerster's line of himself, Noah Cates, and Bobby Brink allowed the fewest expected goals against per 60 minutes (2.17), per MoneyPuck.
Even better is that Foerster's line was dominant at both ends of the ice, controlling 58.3% of the expected goals. This ranked second among the 13 aforementioned lines, trailing Toronto's line of Matthew Knies, Auston Matthews, and Mitch Marner (58.4%) by 0.01%.
While the Flyers' offensive production was modest (28.8 expected goals for, ninth out of 13), they still created roughly the same as New Jersey did with Ondrej Palat, Jack Hughes, and Jesper Bratt (26.7 expected goals for) in 49 more minutes together.
For the sake of comparison, Evolving-Hockey last offseason predicted Winnipeg Jets forward Gabe Vilardi's next contract to be worth $21.94 million over four years ($5.485 million AAV), and Vilardi at the time was heading into the last year of a two-year bridge contract at a $3.437 million cap hit with a career-high 41 points.
After exploding for a career-high 27 goals and 61 points this season, Vilardi has made himself much more money after taking a bridge deal in 2023.
Last summer, Evolving-Hockey projected Foerster would receive a two-year extension worth $5.952 million ($2.976 million AAV), which is certainly out of the window now after the season he had.
If the Flyers want to preserve flexibility and opt to sign Foerster long-term now, they are very likely looking at something between Vilardi's old projection--roughly $5 million--and Coronato's new deal at $6.5 million.
Foerster might not have the same offensive ceiling as Coronato does, but his size, versatility, and two-way play are things the Flyers cannot readily replace. Plus, one must figure that Foerster's goal-scoring will drastically improve with a competent power play.
The Flyers' power play converted 15.6% of their opportunities this season, 12.2% of their opportunities last season, and 15% of their opportunities in 2022-23.
The league average power play was 21.64% this season, 20.98% last season, and 21.31% in 2022-23.
That's a lot of goals Foerster and the Flyers are missing, but fortunately for the Flyers, it may help them save a heap of money on Foerster's next contract in the end.
Coronato has help set the bar, and it's now up to Foerster, his camp, and the Flyers to work towards an amicable middle ground for the future.
