How Jed Hoyer looks at the Cody Bellinger decision and how it’ll shape Cubs’ offseason

Last winter, the decision Cody Bellinger had to make was an obvious one. Opting out of his deal with the Chicago Cubs after putting up a 136 wRC+, the highest since his MVP 2019 season, took little thought.

This year?

“It’s harder, definitely,” Bellinger said.

Bellinger had a solid season, putting up a 109 wRC+ while playing in the same number of games (130) as the 2023 season. Bellinger is on a three-year deal that paid him $27.5 million this season. He can either opt out (and get another $2.5 million by doing so) or earn another $27.5 million next season with another opt-out available after 2025. If he stays all three years, he’d earn $80 million.

Some might see it as this season wasn’t good enough for Bellinger to opt out, but he only needs to be guaranteed over $50 million for it to make sense. The way Jed Hoyer was talking, it didn’t seem like he’d be surprised if Bellinger hit free agency for the third winter in a row.

“When we signed the deal in late February, if he had a good year, we knew he’d have a lot of options,” Hoyer said. “He had a good year and so I think he’ll have options.”

After Sunday’s 3-0 loss to the Cincinnati Reds, which led to the Cubs’ equaling last season’s 83-79 record, Bellinger discussed his impending decision.

“I’m going to go back for a few days, spend time with my family,” Bellinger said. “For me, there’s no reason to wait if the answer is there. Just have continuous conversations and figure out what’s best for me or my family. Relax at first and figure it out.”

“I still believe in everyone in this clubhouse, believe in Counse. Very smart man and he’s gonna take this organization places.”

Cody Bellinger reflects on the 2024 season. pic.twitter.com/PLoYBDwuSk

— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) September 29, 2024

Bellinger will obviously lean on his agent, Scott Boras. It wouldn’t be hard for Boras to sell his client on being able to get him more guaranteed money than what he has remaining on his contract. Boras could very easily position Bellinger as a fallback option to clubs that miss out on Juan Soto.

Anyone looking for a left-handed bat who doesn’t get Soto could look Bellinger’s way. They very likely wouldn’t get the same offensive production, but it would still be strong. Add that to Bellinger’s defensive versatility and the hope he could perform up to his 2023 level and it’s not hard to imagine going to the open market being a smart move.

Hoyer even pointed out reason to believe Bellinger could easily have a stronger offensive season next year.

“Obviously he didn’t have quite the year he had last year,” Hoyer said. “Last year he was an MVP candidate. When you look at the totality of the year he had, he had roughly an .800 OPS on the road. I think his home OPS was 200 points lower than last year. It’s kind of how Wrigley played. I expect him to have a lot of options.”

Bellinger finished 10th in MVP voting last season and won a Silver Slugger. At home, he had a .902 OPS (143 wRC+), and on the road, it was a .860 OPS (129 wRC+). This year, in a season when offense was down across the game, those numbers were .700 at home (99 wRC+) and .797 on the road (117 wRC+).

A big talking point among the Cubs front-office members, players and coaches — and even something Boras himself brought up — was how rough Wrigley Field was on offense this year. Only T-Mobile Park (Seattle) had a worse ballpark OPS than Wrigley’s .653.

Anyone who thinks Boras won’t use that as a way to push Bellinger as being a better offensive player than the numbers showed hasn’t paid attention to how the super-agent works. Bellinger made it clear he does love Chicago, but even when saying that, he couldn’t help but specify what time of year it’s best.

“There’s no better place to play in the summertime,” Bellinger said. “Once you get past April, it really is beautiful. Wrigley Field in general is beautiful. I love the fans. They’re very knowledgeable and passionate. As a player, you feel the love and passion. Something I’ll never take for granted. There’s a lot of good things about this organization.”

Beyond Soto, Boras also has numerous other top free agents including Corbin Burnes, Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso and Blake Snell. Boras is often attuned to what’s happening on the market, but having such a deep client list this winter will certainly help him be on top of his game. That should help Bellinger as well.

It’s still not guaranteed Bellinger is opting out. He doesn’t have to decide for another month. How the Cubs attack this offseason, a critical one for Hoyer and general manager Carter Hawkins, will be shaped by this decision.

“Obviously it will impact team building,” Hoyer said. “Figuring out what positions we’re filling. He is versatile. It’ll have an impact. But I expect he’ll have a bunch of options given how he played this year.”

The Cubs will have plenty of money to spend regardless of whether Bellinger opts out. If he comes back, they’ll still be over $50 million below their budget for this season. Assuming the budget remains relatively unchanged, that should still give them plenty to work with. But which position players might fit on the roster and whom the team might be willing to trade changes drastically depending on this decision.

But that’s where Hoyer, Hawkins and their ability to be creative will come into play. They know the 2024 season wasn’t good enough. Next season has to be the playoffs or bust. Yes, both want sustained success. That’s certainly important, but finding a way to improve this roster and set them up for success next summer is imperative. Waiting until next year is no longer acceptable.