The Arizona Cardinals’ 2024 schedule has been released. How “winnable” is each game? Let’s do some quick math.
The NFL is almost a year-round league these days, with several tentpole events throughout the offseason to dominate the sports news cycle. Yesterday was another such even with the 2024 schedule released to much fanfare.
We already knew who and where the Arizona Cardinals would be playing in what figures to be a fascinating 2024 season, but now we know the all-important when. Like last year, I’ll run through the schedule and try to guesstimate how winnable each game is using the following scale:
- 1 = Extremely favorable matchup, should be an easy win
- 2 = Solid matchup for us, good chance to win
- 3 = Could go either way
- 4 = Tough matchup, would be very hard to win
- 5 = Extremely difficult matchup, almost a certain loss
The Cardinals had a pretty tough schedule last year: all but one game was a 3/5 or higher. (The only game I rated 2/5 was a Week 10 home win against the Atlanta Falcons.) We of course went just 4-13 against that tough slate with a new HC/GM and Kyler Murray missing 10 games recovering from his ACL tear.
The scheduling gods were a bit kinder to us this year, as we’re tied for the 7th-easiest schedule by 2023 winning percentage (imperfect a measure though that may be). More importantly, the Redbirds look like a better team on paper with a healthy Kyler, #4 overall pick Marvin Harrison Jr. added to the WR room, and an infusion of talent on defense.
So does that mean more winnable games, more 1s and 2s? We’ll see—the Cardinals are an unproven team that still has several question marks, especially on defense. But I feel confident that this schedule will shake out easier than last year’s 3.8/5 average. Let’s dive in and find out for sure.
Week 1 – Road at Buffalo Bills = 4
The Cardinals and, especially, their new-look defense will be tested right off the bat. The Bills are a perennial playoff team and Josh Allen is one of the best QBs in the league. But the team lacks proven pass catchers after Stefon Diggs’s departure and we caught a break by having to visit Buffalo in September and not December. This’ll be a tough test but the Cardinals shouldn’t be without hope. Remember what happened the last time these two teams played?
Week 2 – Home vs. Los Angeles Rams = 3
Sean McVay’s Rams always seem to have our number—see the combined 63-23 sweep last season—but it’s at home and the Rams will be without Aaron Donald after his surprising offseason retirement. That offense still looks scary, but maybe the defense will be more beatable? We’ll likely be a slight underdog but this should be a competitive game.
Week 3 – Home vs. Detroit Lions = 4
I almost went with a 3/5 here given Jared Goff’s pronounced home/road splits, but man are the Lions stacked at the skill positions. Plus the game will be indoors and the Cardinals defense figures to be a below-average unit at best. This’ll be another tough early-season test. The Cardinals could play well in all three games and still start 0-3.
Week 4 – Home vs. Washington Commanders = 2
You might try to argue this should be a 1/5 as the Commanders have a new coach, a rookie QB, and the fourth-worst Vegas win over/under total (don’t look who’s tied with them). But this team isn’t entirely devoid of talent, Quinn is a veteran coach, and Jayden Daniels looks special. We should be favored but the Commanders shouldn’t be pushovers this season.
Week 5 – Road at San Francisco 49ers = 5
Yep, this matchup will probably always be a 5/5 as long as Kyle Shanahan is doing his thing in San Francisco. The Niners are once again a Super Bowl favorite with one of the highest Vegas win totals in the league. They’ll have some hard roster decisions to make in the next year or two, but for now they’re one of the premier teams in the league, and one the Cardinals should continue to struggle with (a combined 80-45 sweep last season).
Week 6 – Road at Green Bay Packers = 4
Hey, at least it’s not Lambeau in December. As Walter pointed out, the Cardinals caught a ton of breaks weather-wise this season. But the Packers look primed to return to the playoffs with an ascendant Jordan Love and a fleet of promising young pass catchers that should give the Cardinals fits. The team could be much improved but still struggle to go even .500 in the first 6 games.
Week 7 – Home vs. Los Angeles Chargers = 2
This number might seem low—what about Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh? But taking a look at the Chargers’ roster it really looks like this’ll be a rebuilding year. The offense is nearly devoid of proven playmakers around Herbert and their other elite players always seem to be hurt. Harbaugh will probably eventually succeed in L.A., but it’ll take time. Plus the home crowd should be pumped for the team’s only scheduled primetime game this season.
Week 8 – Road at Miami Dolphins = 4
Another weather break—Miami in September is much tougher than late October. But the Dolphins look like playoff contenders again and that offense should once again be SCARY. Their defense looks beatable but it might not matter if Tua, Tyreek, and Co. hang 40 on our defense (a very real possibility).
Week 9 – Home vs. Chicago Bears = 3
This should be a fun one—Kyler and MHJ against Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze (plus D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen, obviously). The Bears should be much-improved and could make a playoff push this season—something some folks are saying about the Cardinals themselves. This one looks pretty evenly matched on paper.
Week 10 – Home vs. New York Jets = 3
I marked this as a 3/5 simply because I have no idea what to make of the Jets right now. They should be a contender with an elite defense, a strong group of playmakers, and a future HOF QB. But their O-line is a huge question mark, depth could be an issue, and said HOF QB’s range of outcomes go from “retire to run for office” to league MVP. This is one of the tougher games to handicap right now, so I’ll go 3/5 simply because it’s a home game.
Week 11 – BYE WEEK
Week 12 – Road at Seattle Seahawks = 4
Road games in the NFC West are at least a 4/5 until further notice. Yes, Pete Carroll is out and, yes, Geno Smith regressed last year, but there’s still a ton of talent on this team and Seattle has as imposing a home-field advantage as any team in the league. Coming out of the bye week will help the Cardinals, though.
Week 13 – Road at Minnesota Vikings = 2
A road game as a 2/5? Maybe I’m underestimating the Vikings a bit, and they do have some of the best playmakers in the league in Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson, and Aaron Jones. But Kirk Cousins is gone, as is Danielle Hunter on defense. This looks like the start of a rebuild, and no team starting J.J. McCarthy or (lol) Sam Darnold is all that intimidating. Call it hubris but this doesn’t look like that tough of a matchup to me right now.
Week 14 – Home vs. Seattle Seahawks = 3
Our second Seahawks matchup in two weeks, this one at home. While we were swept in the NFC West for the first time last season, both games against Seattle were competitive (a 20-10 road loss in Week 7 and a narrow 21-20 home defeat in Week 18). Rest assured the Cardinals will do their damnedest to ensure we don’t go 0-6 in the division again this season.
Week 15 – Home vs. New England Patriots = 1
Here we have our first and only 1/5 on the schedule. The Patriots might very well be the worst team in football this year, and we get them at home. The Patriots have a rookie head coach, will be starting either Jacoby Brissett or Drake Maye at QB, and have one of the most unimposing groups of skill position players in the league. (The defense could be decent, though.) This is exactly the kind of game that the 2024 Arizona Cardinals should win easily.
Week 16 – Road at Carolina Panthers = 2
If that Patriots aren’t the worst team in the league this year, perhaps it’ll be the Panthers (again). Bryce Young over C.J. Stroud already looks like one of the biggest draft blunders in NFL history, they also have a rookie head coach, and they also have a subpar group of playmakers on offense, negating the Cardinals’ likely subpar defense. This is a 2/5 because it’s an early East Coast road game, but this is another game this team should be able to win if they improve like many think they will.
Week 17 – Road at Los Angeles Rams = 4
Remember what I said about NFC West road games above? That obviously also applies here. If you want to go 5/5 because of the Sean McVay effect, I wouldn’t argue too much. But, again, Donald is retired and Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp are a year older. Plus who knows whether the Rams will be in the playoff hunt or not at this point. A 4/5 rating sounds about right.
Week 18 – Home vs. San Francisco 49ers = 4
The Cardinals have a stretch of very winnable games coming out of the bye week, but these last two divisional games look pretty tough. Yeah this game is at home and the Niners might already have their playoff seed wrapped up, but even their backups should be tough. (As we have found out against divisional opponents several times in recent years.)
Final Thoughts
So what do these back-of-the-envelope numbers say about the Cardinals schedule this season? The average difficulty for the Redbirds this season is 3.4/5, down from that 3.8/5 figure mentioned at the beginning of the article.
The schedule is a bit easier, the team is improved, and the outlook is a little rosier than last year. Can we beat the 6.5 win projection Vegas has for us? Well, if we win four of the five games we “should win” (2/5 or easier), that’ll put as at 4 right there. If we can split the four 3/5 games, that’s 6 wins. So we’d just need one win in the eight games at 4/5 or tougher to beat that total—and remember that this team won three such games last year (Dallas, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia).
So what am I trying to say? Maybe put a little money down on the Cardinals to beat their Vegas win total. I’m going to do that right now myself—be right back.
In the meantime, give us your own rundown of the schedule in the comments after voting in the poll below. Are you gonna back the Redbirds for 7 or more wins?
