If Only Bears Took Barkley—PFF Redraft Shows Smith Isn’t A First-Round Lock

The NFL draft is rarely better than a crapshoot for most teams. There are occasionally a handful of players who are easy decisions for NFL general managers, like selecting Caleb Williams with the first overall pick, but most of the time, it's a guessing game.

That's what makes redrafts an intriguing and fun process. With the benefit of hindsight, we can look back and see which highly graded picks at the time ended up flaming out, or who should have been picked several spots higher than they actually were. That's what the folks over at Pro Football Focus have done with the 2018 NFL draft.

In reality, the Chicago Bears selected linebacker Roquan Smith with the No. 8 pick. In PFF's redraft, however, Smith tumbles down seven spots before landing with the Arizona Cardinals at No. 15. As for the Bears, they take a true game-breaking running back with their pick: the 2024 Offensive Player of the Year and Super Bowl champion, running back Saquon Barkley.

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Justifying this pick, the PFF staff writes: "Barkley could have been a cornerstone of the Bears' offense as they tried to figure out their quarterback situation. In the five seasons in which he has played the most snaps, he has posted PFF rushing grades above 70.0 while contributing in the receiving game."

Some Bears fans might say that this selection would have been outlandish at the time, considering the Bears had Jordan Howard, who put up back-to-back seasons of over 1,000 rushing yards. This is true, but what's also true is that Howard regressed hard in 2017 after an impressive rookie campaign, seeing his yards per carry average plummet from 5.2 to 4.1 instead.

That's not awful, but it's not great. And if a generational running back who was earning comparisons to the legendary Barry Sanders had been available, the Bears would have sprinted to the podium to turn Barkley's name in once they were on the clock.

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Barkley went on to post over 2,000 rushing and receiving yards and 15 touchdowns combined in 2018. Imagine what the Bears, who fielded one of the most dominant defenses this century, could have done with that kind of production to back up quarterback Mitch Trubisky. Imagine what kind of playoff run that team could have made, potentially ending with a Super Bowl title.

Or, for Bears fans, perhaps don't imagine any of that. The 2018 postseason is a sore subject, understandably.

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