Is Colts' Jaylon Carlies Ready to Take the Next Step in 2025?

The Indianapolis Colts prioritized upgrading their needs this offseason, signing Charvarius Ward and Camryn Bynum to massive deals in free agency and selecting Tyler Warren in the first round of the draft. The lone remaining question mark on the roster comes down to which player will be starting alongside Zaire Franklin at linebacker.

The leader in the clubhouse appears to be Jaylon Carlies, a 2024 fifth-round selection who made the move from safety to linebacker last offseason. Carlies appeared in 10 games as a rookie, making starts in six, primarily as the team's SAM linebacker. He missed seven games last season due to injuries to his shoulder and to his fibula.

Carlies is a talented player who impressed in limited play last season. That being said, does the former day three selection deserve a starting job this early in his career, or are the Colts throwing a young player to the wolves way too early in his development?

Positives

Pass Coverage Ability

Carlies shined in coverage last season, albeit in limited responsibilities and limited overall snaps in coverage. As the team's SAM linebacker, he was primarily responsible for covering the flats in zone coverage, keying backside leak plays to tight ends on play-action passes/RPOs, and manning up with running backs out of the backfield out of heavy sets.

For a player with Carlies' background and his athleticism, this was hardly a challenge for him. Pro Football Focus graded him out as the number three linebacker in coverage last season in just 86 coverage snaps. He excelled at limiting yards after reception, holding opponents to just an average of 2.4 yards after catch last season.

His responsibilities in pass coverage were nothing eye-opening, but he did operate well within the role he was given as a rookie.

The real reason to feel optimistic about Carlies in pass coverage is how he flashed in moments away from the SAM position. He made two starts last season at WILL linebacker, although he did leave the game early against the Miami Dolphins due to his shoulder injury. He played the full game against the Tennessee Titans in Week 16 at the position, though, and put together a strong showing.

Carlies showcased better vision and feel at the linebacker position than expected in year one. As a reminder, Carlies was a college safety who transitioned to linebacker for the first time this past offseason. Some of the nuances and details will need to come with more reps down the line, but the flashes in coverage were intriguing, to say the least.

These three clips below aren't nearly enough to feel confident about his play heading into next season, but they are certainly a start.

Disengaging in Run Defense

One of the more difficult aspects of making the switch from safety to linebacker is the pure physicality of the new position. Linebackers have a much more difficult line of sight than safety and the position is more demanding in terms of physicality with offensive lineman. For the most part, Carlies handled the change in style of play quite well.

He could still stand to be more aggressive and physical in the box, but he showcased an ability to get off blocks that wasn't really expected in year one. His relentless hustle and energy showed out last year, and he fought through some blocks in the open field to make stops for the defense. This is just the beginning for him at linebacker, and, all things considered, he appeared to be a perfectly fine player in run defense despite the odds stacked against him.

Negatives

Tackling Consistency

As the season went on in 2024, Carlies started to show some concerning signs as a tackler. He rarely missed tackles early in the year, boasting just a 5% missed tackle rate from Weeks 1-7, but he drifted into some bad habits down the stretch that could cost him much more in the future. His missed tackle rate skyrocketed to 16% in the final three weeks of the season, including the one game where he started at WILL linebacker.

Now, there is some context to consider with this rise in missed tackles. Carlies returned from a shoulder injury in Week 16, and that injury may have had an impact on his overall play. He also made a start at a different position against Tennessee, potentially altering his line of sight from what he knew all season long.

Overall, this isn't the most concerning thing in the world, but it is something to keep an eye on going forward. This late-season tendency to lunge on tackles will lead to more misses in the future if he doesn't clean it up now.

Inexperience

Aside from his tackling consistency starting to wane late in the year, Carlies was pretty solid all season long on film. He hardly made mistakes and was a net positive player for the team overall. That being said, there are still some minor issues he could still stand to work through going forward. The transition from safety to linebacker is a difficult one, and there are certainly some lumps and bruises to work through for the young player.

The biggest thing for Carlies is to continue to work on identifying run vs. pass as early as possible in the play. This is arguably the most important aspect of playing linebacker and it will help the defense limit opposing offenses in play-action and over the middle of the field. He was mostly solid in this regard last year, but Green Bay did get him early in the season off of a nifty play-action design.

The other aspect that he needs to work on is simply being quicker in his run fits. He impressed in his ability to shed blocks and make tackles last season, but the next step is anticipating runs and beating offensive linemen to their landmarks. He was a bit too passive at times in his fits, and it led to offenses gaining extra yards as a result.

This run against the Titans is a good example. The Colts are blitzing against the run here and Carlies is responsible for shooting the 'B' gap off of the snap. He gets a late jump out of his stance, which allows the right tackle to climb to the second level and wash him out of his fit. Carlies makes an impressive tackle on the play, but this should be a 2-4 yard gain rather than an eight yard gain if executed properly.

The Bottom Line

Carlies is a talented linebacker who flashed quite a bit in limited time as a rookie. He is very much on the Bobby Okereke development plan, spending most of year one at SAM linebacker before transitioning to a full-time starter. Carlies arguably showed more in coverage as a rookie than Okereke did, so maybe the Colts have another massive hit at linebacker on their hands.

The question with Carlies isn't whether or not he's capable of starting for the Colts next season. By all accounts, his play last season is certainly worth a look at WILL under Lou Anarumo going forward. The question is more if he is ready for that kind of role. That is where I become a tad more skeptical/concerned.

Carlies flashed strong play in coverage last season, but he simply wasn't asked to do much. The jump from covering running backs in the flat to what Anarumo wants out of his linebackers is pretty steep, and Carlies is still learning how to play linebacker in general. He showcased some ability to do more, but it's hard to let a handful of plays paint the entire picture of a former day-three pick safety converted to linebacker

Overall, I'm optimistic about what Carlies can do on the football field. There are a lot of promising signs in his film, and the arrow is definitely pointing up. My only concern is if this may be too much for the young player in year two. He has just 10 career games at linebacker under his belt, and the Colts don't really have another option to play WILL on the roster. I would have preferred more of a rotation with Carlies in year two rather than a full-blown starter job handed to him in camp.

Regardless, the NFL stands for Not For Long for a reason, and players have to earn their paychecks as soon as possible. Carlies is getting the chance of a lifetime to shine next season, and I have full faith in his abilities. I just hope the Colts aren't rushing him into a role that he isn't completely ready for.