It's Too Early To Condemn Kyle Dubas

As it stands now, the Pittsburgh Penguins are in free fall.

They are mired in a three-game losing streak, have a league-worst goal differential of minus-34, and find themselves in the basement of the Metropolitan Division standings at 7-12-4 with only two teams - the Chicago Blackhawks and San Jose Sharks - having a points percentage lower than their .391.

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Whatever they're doing, it's not working. But, maybe, that is - in a way - an unfortunate consequence of a much larger plan.

Penguins' GM and POHO Kyle Dubas has had his work cut out for him since being hired by Pittsburgh on June 1, 2023. At the time, the Penguins had just missed the postseason for the first time since 2006, and he was tasked with getting an aging team back to the playoffs without mortgaging the future.

For anyone, that's a tall task. Given that the Penguins missed the postseason again in 2023-24 and are off to an abysmal start in 2024-25, it's easy to say that Dubas hasn't done the best job during his tenure so far.

But let's just pump the brakes on that for a second.

In what has been almost a year and half's worth of time, Dubas has had some big swings, and he's had some big misses - but a large part of his story has yet to be told.

So, where has he missed, where has he hit, and what remains to be seen?

Where he has missed: Free agency

Charles LeClaire - Imagn Images

Charles LeClaire - Imagn Images

There are several contracts that Dubas has simply missed on during his time in Pittsburgh, and these are moves that may have cost them some competitiveness in the now.

The biggest misses in free agency to date were the signing of defenseman Ryan Graves to a six-year, $27 million contract and the extension of goaltender Tristan Jarry at five years, $26.88 million - both occuring during the 2023 offseason.

In fairness to Dubas, Graves came off of a good season with New Jersey, and the goaltending market was extremely thin when Jarry was signed. But both of these deals look like duds in hindsight, and the term on both is concerning and could affect the team for years.

As for his other free agent signings? It's certainly been a mixed bag: Some notable players he's signed include goaltender Alex Nedeljkovic to both a free agent contract in 2023 and a two-year extension in 2024, as well as Jesse Puljujarvi, Blake Lizotte, Matt Grzelcyk, Anthony Beauvillier, Matt Nieto, Noel Acciari, and Emil Bemstrom.

Again, a mixed bag, but certainly no one that significantly moves the needle in terms of helping the team now, which was part of the goal - especially last season.

So, in terms of keeping the team competitive in the short-term, Dubas has missed up to this point.

Where he has hit: The trade market

Oct 12, 2024; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Pittsburgh Penguins right wing Rutger McGroarty (2) skates during the warmup before a game against the Toronto Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images

When many people think of Dubas's trade history in Pittsburgh, they immediately jump to the Erik Karlsson trade. That trade - still the largest (by scale) trade in the history of the franchise - was, perhaps, his biggest swing, and it came in the summer of 2023 when the Penguins were still pushing hard to compete.

Karlsson's results in Pittsburgh have been a mixed bag, but at the end of the day, the trade itself was still a win. They saved $3 million in cap space, offloaded four bad contracts, and got a future Hall-of-Fame defenseman coming off an historic 101-point season. They did lose their 2024 first-round pick that ended up being center Konsta Helenius, but that's a deal that any GM makes in the position that Dubas was in at the time.

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