Lightning general manager Julien BriseBois has tried to build a team this offseason fans will want to cheer for not because of the names on the backs of its jerseys but due to how it plays and, most importantly, how often it wins.
He could have been satisfied with the status quo, hoping that first-round playoff exits the past two seasons were a fluke. He could have continued to supplement the team’s stars with cheap role players. That worked during the Stanley Cup years, but since then the team’s depth has been depleted and other teams have narrowed the gap.
Instead, BriseBois made some hard and unpopular decisions. He did not push to re-sign captain Steven Stamkos, even after acquiring cap space by trading Mikhail Sergachev. BriseBois calculated what he believed to be Stamkos’ value to the Lightning and stuck to it, even when it was clear Stamkos could get more elsewhere. In Sergachev, he dealt a player who was a big part of Tampa Bay’s future and on the cusp of becoming one of the game’s top defensemen.
Both were players BriseBois loved on and off the ice, but building a championship team isn’t about falling in love. Sometimes, it’s about painful splits.
BriseBois is taking some risks. He’s gambling that Jake Guentzel will fit on the top line with Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point. He’s banking on J.J. Moser filling Sergachev’s skates as a top-four defenseman. He is counting on Conor Geekie to become the player scouts expect he will, which is never a guarantee even with the biggest can’t-miss prospects. He’s hoping the forward depth figures itself out, including a bounce-back year from Conor Sheary, who projects into a top-six role.
But BriseBois doesn’t hope fans will forgive him. He hopes they’ll thank him four years down the road.
“I understand that Steven signing with the Nashville Predators today is going to overshadow any of the changes that have taken place within our organization in the last few weeks, in the last few days,” BriseBois said Monday. “But as I look ahead, I really like and I’m excited by what I see as taking shape for the organization going forward. ... The end result is that we’ve improved our team and our odds of success both in the short term and long term.”
The Lightning are now officially BriseBois’ team. When they won consecutive Cups in 2020 and ‘21, the general assumption was that BriseBois was the benefactor of Steve Yzerman’s front-office work. Yes, he was Yzerman’s right-hand man along the way, but those were Yzerman’s teams.
But hard choices were coming. The salary cap went up just $1 million over a four-season stretch during and after the pandemic. The Lightning were locked into some huge contracts to their star players. Having to part with Ondrej Palat or Alex Killorn was one thing, but eventually BriseBois was going to have to say goodbye to one of the team’s megastars. The writing was on the wall that it was going to have to be Stamkos or defenseman Victor Hedman.
The turnover that took place this week marks the start of a new chapter in Lightning history.
The team had the league’s top power-play unit and fifth-best penalty kill last season, but its No. 22 ranking in goals allowed was a condemnation of its 5-on-5 play. And that’s where it had to improve.
Stamkos, Sergachev and Tanner Jeannot had sub-par seasons in terms of their two-way play, combining for a minus-47 rating. Stamkos’ minus-21 was worst on the team, while Sergachev (minus-16) tied for second-worst. While there are always extenuating circumstances with plus/minus, those numbers stood out starkly while evaluating this team’s play.
Stamkos’ 5-on-5 struggles were evident, and because of that he shuffled between the top two lines and even spent some time on the third. Before Sergachev was injured, he struggled with the tweaks to the Lightning’s defensive structure. Jeannot never found his fit. When he wasn’t hurt, he spent most of his time on a matchup fourth line that really didn’t fit his style.
Guentzel isn’t an amazing defensive player, but he’s a responsible one (plus-25 last season, plus-69 for his career), which is what the Lightning need on their top line. Point will tell you that while he’s always working on it, his defense isn’t the best part of his game. And what makes Kucherov so great — his creativity with the puck and vision of the ice entering the offensive zone — make him susceptible to egregious turnovers. Plugging in Guentzel on the left wing should make both better.
Moser might not become Sergachev. They’re different players. Moser doesn’t have the same size, but he’s been able to play a big-man’s game in the Western Conference. He should be able to log big minutes, and Jon Cooper can play him on the left or right side, which is important with Ryan McDonagh eating up minutes on the left. Moser can play the power play, and his offensive potential could end up matching Sergachev’s.
Additionally, the value signings of Zemgus Girgensons and Cam Atkinson should bring toughness and supplemental scoring to the bottom two forward lines.
Ultimately, the decisions BriseBois made this week were not only about making the Lightning better next season, but also beyond.
“At the end of the day, we need to make decisions that are in the best interest of the organization,” BriseBois said. “And when I say that, I mean the best interests of us remaining competitive and chasing championships and having on-ice success. And that’s what I feel like I did this week.”
