The past few years have been challenging for right-hander Kyle Hendricks but he’s not thinking about stepping away from the game.
He tells Patrick Mooney of The Athletic that he “100%” plans to continue his career next year.
“Absolutely,” Hendricks said. “I’ll take a step back (once the season ends to) reevaluate and refocus, but I definitely would love to keep pitching.”
Hendricks is slated to reach free agency for the first time this winter. He and the Cubs signed a four-year, $55.5M extension in March 2019, with that pact also containing a 2024 club/vesting option. That deal came amid the strongest stretch of the righty’s career.
From 2014-20, he tossed over a thousand innings with a 3.12 earned run average, 20.8% strikeout rate, 5.3% walk rate and 47.5% ground ball rate. On top of that, he also made a bunch of postseason starts for the Cubs, including five outings with a 1.42 ERA for the curse-breaking 2016 team.
Things haven’t been as smooth since then, however. In 2021, his strikeout rate dropped to 16.7% and his ERA climbed to 4.77. In 2022, he made 16 starts with a 4.80 ERA before a capsular tear in his right shoulder put him on the injured list. He didn’t require surgery but was out of action until late May 2023.
He was able to get back on track a bit from there. He made 24 starts in that 2023 season with a 3.74 ERA. His strikeouts were still down at 16.1%, but he lowered his walk rate to a tiny 4.7% clip and got grounders on 46.3% of balls in play.
That was strong enough to convince the Cubs to pick up their $16.5M club option for the 2024 season, a move that looks regrettable in hindsight. Hendricks is slogging through the worst year of his career, which even got him moved to the bullpen for parts of May and June. He currently has a 6.25 ERA in 118 innings over 22 starts and five relief appearances.
The numbers under the hood perhaps provide some hope for a bounce-back. His 16.1% strikeout rate is an exact match for last year. His 7.7% walk rate is up relative to 2023 but still right around league average. He is still elite at limiting damage, with Statcast putting him in the 98th percentile in terms of average exit velocity and 86th percentile in terms of hard hit rate.
His 63.5% strand rate is the worst of his career and well below league average. Metrics like his 5.17 FIP and 4.74 SIERA suggest he hasn’t been as bad as his ERA would suggest.
His market will naturally be softened by his track record over the past few years, and since he’s turning 35 years old this winter, but teams always need innings and there should be some interest. Beyond his performance, Hendricks has a strong reputation as a clubhouse leader and thoughtful player, earning the nickname “The Professor”.
Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn, both in their mid-30s and coming off middling seasons, each secured eight-figure deals in the most recent offseason. Gibson got a $13M guarantee and Lynn $11M. Other vets like Martín Pérez, Wade Miley and James Paxton got guarantees a bit below that, each of them in the $7M-9M range.
What uniform Hendricks dons next year will be determined in the months to come, but it’s possible that he plays for a team other than the Cubs for the first time. Drafted by the Rangers, he was acquired as a prospect in the July 2012 trade that sent Ryan Dempster to Texas and has been with the Cubs since then.
Chicago’s 2025 rotation currently projects to include Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Javier Assad, Jameson Taillon and Jordan Wicks, with guys like Ben Brown, Hayden Wesneski and Caleb Kilian also in the mix. Prospect Cade Horton hasn’t pitched since late May due to a subscapularis strain but there’s nothing to suggest he won’t be healthy by next year.
It might be difficult to find a spot for Hendricks in there, despite his strong reputation in the organization. Perhaps that will lead him away from Wrigley, which would be a symbolic end of an era for the Cubs. Hendricks is the last player from the 2016 champions still with the club.
