Leave or Stay: Should the Avalanche Bet on Brock Nelson Again?

When the Avs traded for Nelson in March, they — let’s face it — overpaid for the best centerman on the market. They likely needed to outbid other suitors and chose to go all in, sending highly touted prospect Calum Ritchie and a 2026 first-round pick to the New York Islanders for Nelson’s services.

It’s the type of move you have to make when you’re in your Cup window. But it came with a lot of risk.

Nelson’s time with the Avs didn’t go as planned. Did he play well? In a sense, yes. He was finding his groove in the regular season and started to look like a fit as the playoffs began. Unfortunately, he was one of a handful of Avs who couldn’t find the back of the net in the seven-game series loss. And the expected long playoff run lasted less than two weeks.

Now, Nelson and the Avs are at a crossroads. If you’re Nelson, would you be interested in running it back with a talented roster? Playing on a line with Gabe Landeskog and Valeri Nichushkin could be enticing enough.

If you’re Colorado, do you want to give it another run with the 33-year-old? More importantly, do you feel Nelson is the best fit? Or is there another option in free agency or via trade that you think could do better?

The one thing I don’t want management to do is sign Nelson because he’s the easy option. He’s the guy that’s already here, the one you gave up a bunch of assets for, and you end up doubling down on someone who you think wasn’t all that great a fit.

Ritchie is gone. So is the first-rounder. You can’t undo that trade. Don’t bring him back because of what you gave up.

But I’m not even sure that’s how they feel. They might like what he brought. I did. Granted, the lack of a playoff goal was a tough pill to swallow. If the team likes the fit, then they’re faced with trying to figure out a contract for a player who will be 34 in October in a year where cap dollars are still tight.

So what’s Nelson worth?

I often think of the 2019 offseason when the Stars signed Joe Pavelski. He was coming off a 68-point campaign with the Sharks, where he had spent his entire career. He then chose to sign a three-year, $21 million contract to join Dallas as a second-line center.

Pavelski was 35 at the time. He only had 31 points in 67 games in the regular season in his first year with the Stars. But during their run to the Stanley Cup Final, he had 13 goals and 19 points in 27 games. In the following four seasons — which included two more one-year deals — Pavelski put up 75 points in every 82-game stretch. He played longer than the Stars probably thought he would and was a huge contributor.

I use Pavelski as an example, not to compare Nelson to him. But to serve as a reminder that a player on the wrong side of 30, and closer to 35, isn’t always at the end of the road.

Nelson had 56 points in 80 games last year with the Isles and Avs. But he still strikes me as a guy who can give you 60+ points on this team. He also rarely misses games, which would be nice to have.

Would he be worth that same contract? When Pavelski signed, the salary cap was $81.5 million, meaning he was eating up around 8.6% of the Stars’ cap space. If Nelson signed a $7 million AAV contract today, he would only account for 7.3% of Colorado’s cap next year. All things considered, it wouldn’t be a bad deal.

The thing is, none of this matters if Nelson isn’t interested in returning. You need to figure that out first.

Scenario 1: He Stays

I don’t think it would be wise for the Avs to go past three years with Nelson. It would be ideal if he were willing to accept a two-year contract, but he’ll probably want to lock in a longer deal.

As for the cap hit, anything more than $7 million is tough to swallow given the Avs’ cap crunch. But I say that without having a clue of what the new salary standard is going to be. The cap is making a giant leap for the first time in more than half a decade. The standard for what a player is worth is going to change during the offseason. Am I undervaluing Nelson? I guess we’ll find out.

But, anyway, I think the best deal for both sides would be the Pavelski example. Three years, $21 million. Neither side would hate it, I don’t think.

Scenario 2: He Leaves

I still believe this is the more likely scenario. If the Avs had gone on a longer run this year and fallen short of their goal, I could see Nelson returning to give it another go. But, how much of an emotional attachment, if at all, does he have to this team?

Final Verdict

Honestly, I’m burying the lead with this one. Nelson is from Minnesota, and the Wild are finally free of their $14 million+ buyout hit for Zach Parise and Ryan Suter. They’re probably going to throw something crazy like $9 million at Nelson.

They need depth, and the opportunity to play at home might be hard to pass up.

What say you?