Montreal Canadiens fans must assume a few things concerning Kirby Dach heading into 2024-25. Firstly that he’ll be healthy, after playing just two games in 2023-24 due to an early season-ending knee injury.
Secondly, they must assume the Canadiens will stay healthy to a certain point after leading the league in man-games lost records in consecutive seasons from 2021-23 (and finishing among the leaders in 2023-24). In such an instance, Nick Suzuki should continue to centre the top line between Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky (another assumption). And Dach, who had won the job pivoting Line 2 out of training camp, should realistically be put right back there, having technically not done anything to lose it.
That’s where things get dicey. To start 2023-24 Slafkovsky actually played with Dach (and Alex Newhook). Newhook himself played centre (a few times) to make up for the loss of Dach, eventually proving himself at the position himself. So, it stands to reason the Canadiens will make good use of training camp simply to figure out where to play everyone else past the top line. Again, assuming Dach centres line No. 2, here are his potential sets of linemates, ranked in order of increasing likelihood:
5. Brendan Gallagher, Joel Armia
Newhook finished the season pivoting a makeshift line that also comprised Joel Armia and Brendan Gallagher. As a result of the chemistry between the three, they each finished the season on high notes. For example, Gallagher scored five goals and 10 points in his last eight games, a level of production no one has seen out of him since about the turn of the decade.
Since Gallagher isn’t going anywhere, due to a no-movement clause, the Canadiens may deem it necessary to put him in the best position to succeed. While the working theory that Armia is part of the secret sauce to achieving that success is strange to say the least, Dach has amazingly been able to get the best out of everyone with whom he’s played in the past.
Then again, as it was Newhook who centred them to begin with, it makes more sense to keep the trio together. It at least makes sense to spread the wealth and keep playing Newhook at centre, whether between Gallagher and Armia or two other wingers. In contrast, it doesn’t really make sense to saddle Dach with two forwards who have devolved to become bottom-six wingers, on what’s supposed to be Line 2. Sure, he makes everyone with whom he plays better, but he’s not a miracle worker.
4. Joshua Roy, Armia
Before Gallagher got put on that line with Newhook and Armia, the spot belonged to rookie Joshua Roy. Roy obviously got injured to open it up. However, prior to that point he had not only taken massive steps to establishing himself as an NHL regular, but a top-six forward. In fact, based on stats compiled by Montreal Hockey Now’s Marc Dumont, Roy had been one of the team’s top forwards since the All-Star Game. So, it’s logical in a lot of ways that the Habs would want him to pick up where he left off, in a top-six capacity (and in the NHL), giving him the ice time he needs to properly develop in the process.
Armia may be seen as the third wheel here. However, he had played with Roy in the American Hockey League earlier in the season and on a line with him and Sean Monahan in the NHL before the latter got traded. In short, the two have chemistry and no one can blame the Canadiens if they were to keep them together, even if the general consensus is Armia is a bottom-six forward. However, if the Habs do choose to spread the wealth, you’re going to have an uneven lineup in some places. Hopefully that chemistry with Roy (and presumably Dach) helps to offset that, if this is in fact the line with which they go.
3. Roy, Josh Anderson
It’s been said before, but it must be said again for the purposes of this piece: Josh Anderson did not have a good season. He started it off on the top line only to drop down the team’s depth chart bit by bit.
Once Dach got injured, he complemented Newhook and Slafkovsky on the new second line, but it never got going. By virtue of both Newhook and Slafkovsky having turned their campaigns around on separate lines eventually, the logical deduction is Anderson, who never could in comparison, was the weak link.
Regardless of how his value has plummeted, Anderson is realistically staying put, both with the Canadiens and in the NHL. That’s due in large part to his untradeable contract, with a $5.5 million cap hit for the next three seasons. So, the Canadiens are likely going to want to make the most of the term he has left.
While head coach Martin St. Louis tried everything to get Anderson going, he didn’t play him with Dach for obvious reasons. On his wing is a logical place for Anderson to start next season, with the caveat it’s far from guaranteed to work. The thought process here is that, if Anderson can’t get it together with two players who have proven to drive possession in the offensive zone (Roy), he won’t be able to at all. However, they need to find out one way or another.
2. Newhook, Roy
In a just world, the Canadiens would ice a second line of Dach between Newhook and Roy. The former two have proven to be capable top-six forwards and Roy seems to be on his way, making it a formidable line on paper.
The Canadiens’ offensive depth at the bottom of the lineup would admittedly suffer. However, there must be an undeniable temptation to put all your eggs in one basket, even if only to see what icing two potentially powerhouse lines would look like.
1. Newhook, Anderson
One thing the proposed line above might lack is physical play admittedly, which might lead the Canadiens back to Anderson. Furthermore, the reason why it’s likely the Canadiens would end up playing Newhook on the wing instead of at centre is simple. General manager Kent Hughes will have been unable to trade Christian Dvorak this offseason.
True, they can always play Dvorak on the wing as a redundancy, but, as he’s the team’s top faceoff man by a wide margin, that would be like saving Suzuki to go fourth in the shootout. Especially in the face of heightened expectations, St. Louis must ice his best lineup, and, if he’s given Dvorak to work with, you had better believe he’s playing him down the middle.
That pushes Newhook to the wing, realistically opposite Anderson for the reasons above. Whether you play Dvorak above Evans or vice versa, the team’s four centres in such an instance are pretty clear-cut, with Dach having earned praise for his play down the middle in 2022-23 to the point of getting many to believe he’ll end up being more of a suitable No. 1 than Suzuki. For now though, No. 2 will do just fine. It’s really just a question of with whom.
