Many layers to the Oilers’ Ryan McLeod for Matthew Savoie trade

   

Ryan McLeod became an excellent draft pick for the Edmonton Oilers.

He was selected 40th overall in the 2018 NHL entry draft. Six years later, he ranks 15th in goals, 17th in points, and 17th in games played.

It’s important to note that points aren’t the sole measure of Ryan McLeod’s career. He wasn’t drafted to be a point-producer, but his contributions go beyond the scoresheet.

He was drafted a few months before he turned 19 after scoring 26-44-70 in 68 games in his draft year. He followed that up with 19-43-62 in 63 games split between Mississauga and Saginaw in his final season in the Ontario Hockey League. He wasn’t expected to be a big point producer, but he’s become a solid NHL player.

McLeod is one of the fastest skaters in the NHL. He transports the puck very well, he’s good on the penalty kill and is okay on faceoffs (49% in his three-year NHL career). He is sound defensively, and he gave the Oilers solid minutes.

During the past three seasons, McLeod played more minutes than any Oilers forward without Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins on the ice, and McLeod had solid numbers.

He logged 1836 minutes, outshot the opposition 925-782, had an expected goal differential of 81-68 and an actual GF-GA of 61-64. He logged the third most PK minutes and had the second lowest GA/60 rate of the 10 forwards who killed at least 100 minutes the past three seasons.

McLeod was a solid depth forward for the Oilers. At times, though, too many people focused on his lack of physicality more than his positive attributes. Watching him not finish a body check could be frustrating, but that wasn’t his game. Connor Brown delivers fewer body checks than McLeod, but it doesn’t get discussed as often. It was something many started to focus on, and I understand it, but for me, one aspect doesn’t accurately describe his overall positive contributions to the team.

McLeod had more positives than negatives with Edmonton, and his overall skill is one reason the Oilers were able to get Matthew Savoie in return for McLeod.

LAYERS OF THE TRADE…

THE SALARY CAP

The salary cap was a factor. The Oilers need to shed salary. They might have to shed more before opening night, but that will depend on Evander Kane’s health. I expect Kane to use a combination of rest and rehab for the next few months in hopes that it solves his hip/athletic pubalgia issue. They won’t really know until he pushes himself later this summer, and then they will know if surgery is needed.

The reality in a salary cap world is that good teams will need to move out good players. Look at Florida. They lost Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Brandon Montour in free agency because they didn’t have the cap space to re-sign them. It happens to most good teams, and the Oilers will start next season without McLeod, Foegele, and Vincent Desharnais. They did bring in Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson while re-signing Adam Henrique, Connor Brown, Mattias Janmark, Calvin Pickard, Troy Stecher, and Corey Perry.

Moving out McLeod’s $2.1m salary this season (he is an RFA at the end of the year and will likely get a raise) and bringing in Savoie, who will likely spend most of the season in the AHL, helps them manage the cap.

SABRES NEED TO WIN…

This will be Kevyn Adam’s fifth season as GM of the Sabres. In his first season, Buffalo had 37 points (.330P%) in 56 games (shortened season). Then they improved to 75 points in year two and 91 points in year three before dropping back to 85 points last season. The Sabres need better NHL players, and McLeod will likely be a more productive NHL player this season than Savoie would have been. Adams needs to make the playoffs to maintain his job, and while I think he and his management team believe in McLeod, there is risk in moving Savoie.

The Sabres also have an abundance of skilled, smaller forwards who were high draft picks. Isak Rosen (14th overall in 2021), Noah Ostlund (16th overall in 2022), Zach Benson (13th overall in 2022), and Savoie are all similar in stature. I’d argue Savoie might be the most talented, but Adams and his staff opted to acquire McLeod and stick with Benson (who played a good rookie season last year with 11-19-30 in Buffalo) and the other two.

OILERS BET ON SKILL…

With McDavid, Draisaitl and Henrique down the middle and Jeff Skinner, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Evander Kane and Dylan Holloway on the left-wing depth chart, McLeod was going to be hard-pressed to find a spot in the top nine.  That was a factor in the deal, but Savoie is a highly skilled prospect who was too good to pass up.

There is no guarantee he will be an NHL player, but this deal allowed the Oilers to add a highly skilled prospect while clearing cap space.

Savoie scored 71 points in 34 games in the Western Hockey League last season. He’s been an elite producer since joining the WHL. He had 35-55-90 in 65 games in 2022 and followed that up with 38-57-95 in 62 games in 2023. This year, he scored 30-41-71 in 34 games.

Not many 19-year-olds average over 2.00 points/game in the WHL, which makes Savoie an intriguing prospect and why this trade is so rare.

Top-10 Picks Traded…

In the salary cap era, it is extremely rare to see a team trade a top-10 pick before playing in the NHL.

Jack Johnson was drafted 3rd overall by Carolina in 2005. He went to Michigan for the 2005-06 season and planned on going again in 2006-07. The Hurricanes wanted to sign him, but after he didn’t’ sign they decided to trade him, along with Oleg Tverdovsky to Los Angeles in September, 2006 for Eric Belanger and Tim Gleason.  LA won the trade as Tverdovsky and Johnson were the two best players. Johnson did stay in Michigan for the 2006-07 season and then turned pro.

Griffin Reinhart was drafted 4th overall by the New York Islanders in 2012. He played two more years in the WHL and then turned pro. He played 59 games in the AHL and eight games with the Islanders. At the 2015 draft, Griffin was traded to Edmonton for the 16th and 33rd picks. The Islanders selected Matt Barzal 16th overall, then used the 33rd pick in a trade to move up to pick #28, and selected Anthony Beauvillier. Oilers fans know too well who won this trade. It was a horrific trade by then-GM Peter Chiarelli.

Mikhail Sergachev was drafted 9th overall in 2016 by Montreal. He played four NHL games with the Canadiens to start the season before being sent back to junior. In June 2017, Montreal traded him to Tampa Bay for Jonathon Drouin (3rd overall pick in 2013). Drouin had asked for a trade from Tampa a year earlier, and the Lightning waited and landed Sergachev. He became a massive part of their back-to-back Stanley Cups.

This past January, Philadelphia traded Cutter Gauthier (4th overall pick in 2022) to Anaheim for Jamie Drysdale (6th overall in 2020) and a 2o25 second round pick. Gauthier had told Philadelphia he wouldn’t sign with them, so they were forced to trade him. Drysdale played 24 games with the Flyers this past season. Time will tell who wins this deal, but many are high on Gauthier.

Sergachev and Johnson turned out to be losing trades for the team that drafted him. The Islanders won big on the Reinhart trade, while it is too early to say who will win the Gauthier trade.

There is one other trade we have to mention. The Washington Capitals selected Filip Forsberg 11th overall in the 2012 draft. He remained in Sweden for a year, but the Capitals decided to trade him at the 2013 trade deadline to Nashville for forward Martin Erat. Erat was 31 years old and he’d eight consecutive seasons between 16-21 goals and 49-58 points. He was very consistent; however, his play fell off a cliff quickly after the trade.

He played nine games with Washington after the deadline, then the following season, he produced 1-23-24 in 53 games before being traded to Arizona. The following season, he scored 9-23-32 with the Coyotes. That was his last year in the NHL before he finished his career playing five seasons in Europe.

Forsberg has become the Predators franchise leader in goals and is second in career points behind Roman Josi—a major win for the Predators.

TRADE REVIEW…


OAKVILLE, Ont. – Matthew Savoie during Team Canada 2024 World Junior Championship Selection Camp on Dec. 10, 2023. (Photo from Steven Ellis/Daily Faceoff)

The Sabres will see an immediate impact from the trade, as McLeod will help them this season. I believe McLeod will have a long career. He will play 10+ seasons in the NHL because of his speed and skill. Buffalo got a bonafide NHL player, while the Oilers freed up some cap space and received a prospect with high-end skill.

The key for the Oilers is how they develop Savoie. He’s in a great spot to develop because the Oilers don’t have to rush him to the NHL. They have nine solid top-nine forwards, and Connor Brown and Mattias Janmark could also play there if needed.

Edmonton has more upside in Savoie, while Buffalo has more security and a known product in McLeod.

Considering the cap space issues, I like this trade for Edmonton as long as Savoie gets to play power play and top-six minutes in Bakersfield. Buffalo took a considerable risk moving Savoie, but they also got a proven NHL player.

Time will tell which move was right, but I see very little downside in the deal for the Oilers.