Maple Leafs' best chance for Stanley Cup may have to wait until 2026-27 season

If you're the Edmonton Oilers and Florida Panthers, the idea of running it back made sense. When you have Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, you have a chance to win every season, while the Panthers are a super-team. The Oilers went a different way though, losing a few key pieces in free agency thus far, while Florida found a way to sign all three UFA's, when it felt like they would probably only sign one.

Even though the Oilers made it to back-to-back Stanley Cup Finals, they decided to change some of their core, while the Leafs are essentially running it back. You can argue that letting Mitch Marner walk in free agency is a huge change to this organization, but this team is starting to look very familar to last year's.

Don't get me wrong, re-signing Tavares for $4.38M and Knies for $7.75M was fantastic work by GM Brad Treliving. It would have been terrible to see both of those players walk away at that price, but when is change going to truly happen? Do we really believe that the playoff results are going to change just because Marner left? I'm not too sure about that right now.

The Leafs currently have $4.9M in cap-space, and could easily have a lot more if they traded David Kampf, Max Domi, Ryan Reaves and/or Calle Jarnkrok, but it doesn't feel like that is happening anytime soon. Although there is still time for a big trade, it feels like this team is setting themselves up for the summer of 2026, instead of winning a championship in 2025-26.

Leafs are set up for 2026 and beyond

As much as it is hard to push another year of Auston Matthews' prime away, I kind of respect what Treliving is doing and how he's maneuvering everything. With Matthews, Nylander, Knies, Tavares, their top defenseman and both goalies signed until at least 2027, the summer of 2026 could be a huge window for the Leafs.

They have $26M in projected cap-space available next summer to make a huge splash. I know that Connor McDavid is a pipe-dream, but if there was ever going to be another team that he played for it, it would be the Leafs. The Oilers fans would hate him for the rest of time, but having Matthews, McDavid, Tavares and Laughton/Roy down the middle of the ice would make the Leafs instant Stanley Cup favourites.

Toronto is going to be a playoff team once again this year, but this squad won't do more than reaching the second round, unfortunately. However, let's hope that the Oilers are in a similar situation and their captain gets upset and wants to head back home, because the Leafs have sneakily set themselves up to be a Stanley Cup favourite for 2026-27.