Maple Leafs’ dream scenario in 2025 NHL Free Agency

The Maple Leafs have already made one big move this offseason, relieving Brendan Shanahan of his duties as president. This will put more pressure on Brad Treliving in his third offseason as the Leafs' GM. Treliving will have plenty of decisions to make in this free agency period. While Auston Matthews and William Nylander are both under contract, Mitch Marner and John Tavares are both unrestricted free agents. Further, Matthew Knies is a restricted free agent along with Nicholas Robertson and Pontus Holmberg.

Toronto is expected to have $27.2 million in cap space to work with this offseason, according to Cap Wages. The Leafs will need to be creative this offseason if they are going to improve and make another run at the Stanley Cup. Still, there is the potential for a great summer, and this would be the dream scenario for the Leafs when NHL free agency begins on July 1.

Re-sign 2 of 3 big free agents

The Maple Leafs have three highly productive free agents in Knies, Tavares, and Marner. Knies was fifth on the team in points this past year, while Tavares was fourth, and Marner led the team. Also, Tavares and Knies both scored seven points in the playoffs, while Marner had 13. Re-signing Knies may be the easiest of the group. The Leafs have restarted contract talks with the winger. He is a restricted free agent, so this is also the situation that the Maple Leafs have the most control over. If they do lose Knies, it would have to be for compensation. He is expected to have a contract with an AAV between $4 and $7 million, depending on the length of the deal. If the Leafs want to save money in the short term, they could sign a shorter deal and use the cash elsewhere.

While re-signing Knies would be great, losing both Tavares and Marner would be a nightmare for Toronto. Re-signing both of them would be the perfect situation, but it may not be tenable this offseason. First, Tavares is expected to cost nearly $8 million in the next contract. Combined with the $4 million for Knies, this would start putting a strain on the salary cap. Meanwhile, Marner is expected to bring in over $12 million, which would make it difficult to sign all three players. Marner seems to be the most likely to be leaving, but in a perfect situation, the Leafs keep at least Knies and Tavares, if not all three.

Bring in a top-flight defenseman

The Maple Leafs were tied for eighth in the NHL in goals against this year, but they were also 17th on the penalty kill. Toronto has Jake McCabe and Chris Tanev on the top defensive pairing, with Morgan Rielly on the second currently and Oliver Ekman-Larsson on the third. While all of their top six defenders are under contract for this upcoming season, moving on from one of them to bring in a top-level defender could be a major move. Bringing in Noah Dobson would be the dream for the Maple Leafs.

First, Dobson would bring some youth to an aging defensive unit. Currently, only Brandon Carlo and Simon Benoit are under the age of 30 out of their top six defenders. Dobson will not turn 26 until mid-way through the season, making him the youngest player of the group. Second, he would add to the offense. Ekman-Larsson led all blue line players on the Leafs in IPP in 5v5 situations. This is the Individual Point Percentage, which measures how often a player scores a goal or receives an assist when they are on the ice.

Ekman-Larsson leads with a 40 percent IPP, while Dobson had a 46.15 percent IPP this year. This would be an instant offensive upgrade from the blue line. Further, Dobson created 75 scoring chances this year in 5v5 situations. The top Maple Leafs defender in that category was Morgan Rielly, who had just 61. Not only could Dobson help on the penalty kill and be a strong defender, but he would also help the Leafs' offense. He would cost a lot in terms of compensation and pay, but would be worth it in a dream situation for the Maple Leafs in free agency.

Steal from a rival

Dobson is not the only available blue line upgrade this year. Another option is Aaron Ekblad. First, he may be more attractive than Dobson based on compensation. Dobson is a restricted free agent and would require compensation to the Islanders. Ekblad is unrestricted and would project to save money over Dobson as well. Ekblad would still be a small upgrade on the offensive side of the ice as well. He had a nearly 41 percent IPP in 5v5 situations. While not as dramatic an upgrade as Dobson, he would still add to the penalty kill and the offense. As a bonus, this would also hurt the Florida Panthers. Ekblad has been one of their top defensive options, and poaching him away from the team that eliminated you would be a huge win.

Another option to hurt the Panthers is to take Sam Bennett in free agency. If the Leafs choose to re-sign Marner and let Tavares walk, there will be a major need for a second-line center. First, Bennett could save money over Tavares. Tavares is expected to bring in eight million, while Bennett would be closer to $6.75 million AAV. While Bennett did not have the same production as Tavares, it would be a dream to snag him for two reasons beyond just the financials.

The first is that it hurts the Panthers. Adding one of their top six players will cause a hole for them. Secondly, Bennett brings in playoff experience deep in the playoffs. This current core of the Leafs has not left the second round before. Bennett is playing in his third straight Stanley Cup Final and has played over 100 playoff games.