Even though the Toronto Maple Leafs only had five picks and did not have a first-round pick in the 2022 NHL Entry Draft, it could be considered a success. Today, Fraser Minten and Nicholas Moldenhauer are among Toronto’s top prospects. At the same time, Dennis Hildeby was chosen as the team’s top goaltending prospect at 122nd overall despite being an older player.
The most sought-after player right now is Nikita Grebenkin, whom Toronto selected 135th. However, he earned a lot of praise during training camp. There is even talk that he might start the 2024-25 season with the Maple Leafs, but if not, he will be a crucial factor for the team’s American Hockey League affiliate, the Toronto Marlies.
Who Is Nikita Grebenkin?
The native of Serov, Russi scored 12 goals and recorded 34 points in 54 games during his first full season with Stalnye Lisy Magnitogorsk in the MHL, the top junior league in Russia. His point totals ranked 10th among first-year draft-eligible prospects in the MHL that season and sixth out of nine full-time MHL players who were eventually selected.
Grebenkin had a much better second season, scoring 17 goals and recording 64 points in 58 games. At the time, most NHL-drafted players had already moved on to the Kontinental Hockey League (KHL) at that point, but Grebenkin made the most of his opportunity, and the Maple Leafs took a chance on him in the fifth round. Since NHL teams can hold on to the rights of Russian prospects longer than, for example, a Canadian playing in the Canadian Hockey League, the Maple Leafs were counting on him to develop over the long term.
From a young age, Grebenkin demonstrated a high hockey IQ and solid playmaking abilities. As he grew older, he became physically stronger and learned to use his strength effectively. Grebenkin is also not afraid of physical play, which helped him earn playing time in the KHL during the 2022-23 season.
He was loaned out to Amur Khabarovsk by Metallurg Magnitogorsk, where he tallied 26 points in 45 games and finished fourth in team scoring. Among his teammates, only Ivan Nikolishin had a better point-per-game average (0.63) than Grebenkin’s 0.58.
What Grebenkin Will Bring To the Marlies
Grebenkin enjoys controlling the puck and excels in one-on-one situations where he can showcase his creativity by attempting to deke opponents and create scoring opportunities. He is particularly effective as a playmaker, especially when paired with a fast, skilled shooter. Grebenkin demonstrates strong puck-cycling abilities, withstands physical pressure from bigger players, and maintains possession to create scoring chances.
His agility is enhanced by a smooth and efficient skating technique that is mechanically strong, although he sometimes lacks top-end speed in straight lines. He compensates for this by using quick evasive moves, well-coordinated crossovers, and exaggerated lateral steps to avoid pressure in the neutral zone. When he reaches the offensive line, he can use his skating to manipulate the opposing defence’s positioning and change direction quickly, leaving his opponent behind.
Grebenkin not only remains unfazed but also takes charge, leading with his natural ability to drive the game forward. His exceptional playmaking skills allow him to create high-danger scoring opportunities, resulting in some of the highest primary-assist rates among draft-eligible junior hockey players last season.
Unfortunately, he will miss his top-line centre with the Marlies at the start of the season after Minten went down with an injury in a prospect game against the Montreal Canadiens over a week ago. Either Ty Voit or Logan Shaw will enter that spot until Minten returns. Both players can help fill out Grebenkin’s game by matching his speed and creating opportunities for him in front of the net or off a breakout rush. Plenty of Marlies will benefit from his playstyle, and vice versa. The team should have a big offensive season.
Is Grebenkin a Perfect Fit With the Organization?
Grebenkin has been with Toronto since the team’s rookie tournament against Montreal. He made his preseason debut with the club on Sunday night, lining up with John Tavares and Max Pacioretty and helped ramp up the crowd late in the game with a spirited fight against former Maple Leafs prospect Adam Gaudette.
There is still room for him to grow. His skating can sometimes be awkward, but working with the Maple Leafs’ development staff will help improve that. He has also shown significant improvement since he was drafted.
During the 2020-21 season, he often did too much in the offensive zone and neglected other areas of the game. Grebenkin was aggressive, but this usually got him into trouble. However, in the 2022-23 season, he focused on directing his energy towards dominating play with the puck, and he looked like a completely different player.
After gaining more experience, Grebenkin is a viable long-term option for Toronto. At 21, he’s still young, and he stands out in Toronto’s system as one of the few prospects unafraid to combine offensive flair with physicality. While Grebenkin didn’t score, he made his presence felt in his first preseason game, and it seems like he’s just getting started. However, he should spend most of the season with the Marlies. Toronto is a challenging market, and he needs time to adapt to his new environment. Removing the immediate pressure to perform in the NHL can only help.
