The Toronto Maple Leafs had a long time to prepare for Mitch Marner’s departure. With an expiring deal entering the 2024–25 season, it was a known possibility, at the very least.
Losing a player of Marner’s calibre—one who has produced at a 100-point pace with consistent Selke Trophy love since 2018–19—is obviously devastating. But Toronto had a chance to weaponize the $10.9 million he had coming off the books. After all, lacking star talent beyond the “Core Four” contributed massively to their playoff misfortune. With Marner gone, the tides were finally turning.
The Maple Leafs did not weaponize their cap savings, unfortunately. Essentially, they’re the same team they’ve always been, just without Marner. That’s not an offseason plan—it’s a nightmare.
Maple Leafs Are Ignoring Their Defence
Perhaps Toronto’s most glaring issue entering the offseason was the defence. While they can play a passable shutdown game, there’s a puck-moving deficiency on the back end. This was already a serious problem before the Marner trade. Now, it’s exponentially greater—they only added Henry Thrun, a No. 6–7 defenceman, to the mix.
According to Natural Stat Trick, the Maple Leafs ranked 23rd in the regular season and 15th in the playoffs for 5-on-5 expected goal share. There were plenty of instances where they got caved in their own zone, which is where a puck-moving defenceman comes in handy.
Being deprived of a transitionally dominant blue line also affects the offence. Before, Marner made up for that with his crafty playmaking to some degree. Now, there’s no pivot.
The good news for the Maple Leafs is that they’re talented enough to survive until the trade deadline without any further additions. Auston Matthews is one of a few players in the league who can strike from anywhere on the ice—he is a generational talent. William Nylander combines elite skill with high-end smarts, able to create scoring chances for himself and others. Thus, Toronto is a shoo-in for the playoffs, and they remain a contender as long as those two are leading the way.
The bad news is that the defence is almost certainly something the Maple Leafs will need to address at the trade deadline, but they are in somewhat of an asset crisis. After giving up a haul for Brandon Carlo and Scott Laughton at last year’s deadline, they A) didn’t get better and B) lost crucial trading assets in the process. While Toronto could make the money work through salary retention and dumping contracts like David Kämpf and Calle Järnkrok, that’ll come with an extra cost. They could use a top-pairing puck-mover, but affording one will be tricky at best, and impossible at worst.
Maple Leafs Added Forward “Depth” Instead of a Top-Sixer
Admittedly, I was a fan of the Maple Leafs’ Matias Maccelli trade—an undervalued middle-six forward who can play much higher in the lineup. Still, with the $10.9 million savings on Marner, they failed to bring in a single true top-six forward in addition to neglecting the defence.
In fairness, it’s not like a top-six forward was an absolute necessity. But where could the money have gone, then? Well, it’s an area that the team has prioritized in recent seasons, but to no avail: depth.
This exact approach backfired spectacularly against the Florida Panthers in the second round. The teams spent more or less identical trade capital on two players apiece: Brad Marchand and Seth Jones for Florida, and Carlo and Laughton for Toronto. It was a battle of philosophy, targeting stars versus depth.
Unfortunately for the Maple Leafs, Marchand and Jones were excellent in the seven-game series, while Carlo and Laughton struggled heavily. I highlighted this juxtaposition two months ago, arguing that overspending on “depth” cost Toronto the series. The response from their management was to double down.
Dakota Joshua and Nicolas Roy, acquired this offseason, will likely be solid third-liners for the Maple Leafs. Michael Pezzetta can be serviceable as an occasional fourth-liner. Championships aren’t won by true bottom-six forwards, though—stars make those happen. Toronto added none of those while subtracting last season’s fifth-ranked point-scorer.
Maple Leafs Aren’t a Better Playoff Team, Either
Even diehard fans can acknowledge this team will probably be worse in the regular season. Many assume, though, that Toronto’s newfound grit makes them a better playoff team. In theory, it does not.
For all his faults, Marner still performed at a top-line level in April and May. In his postseason career, he has a 74-point pace per 82 games—about the same as Alex Ovechkin—and a 57.65% goal share at 5-on-5, according to Evolving-Hockey. Conversely, Joshua and Roy have each been outscored in postseason play and have a combined average of 35 points per 82 games.
Marner’s playoff results were indeed disappointing. There’s no denying that. Even still, he had a highly positive impact that was not replaced. Toronto is poised to do worse in postseason play, not better.
The Maple Leafs still have $2.9 million to spend this summer, so they may not be done. But even if they use the money wisely, this will remain a disastrous offseason. While Matthews and Nylander will help them maintain contender status, it’s been a nightmare in Toronto.
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