There’s an attendant expectation for Auston Matthews to light the lamp every time he’s on the ice and for some, anything short of that constitutes a failure. Matthews wasn’t the headliner for the Toronto Maple Leafs in their 5-4 victory over the Florida Panthers in Game 1, but he won his minutes easily against his counterpart, Aleksander Barkov, the league’s reigning Selke Trophy winner.
Matthew Knies was the best player on the Maple Leafs’ top line in my opinion in Game 1, while William Nylander was the team’s best player overall. Matthews did the small things well, while getting into space for some dangerous chances, often created by Knies’ relentless physicality on the forecheck.
Matthews was primarily defended by Barkov and Carter Verhaeghe at 5-on-5. When Matthews and Barkov went head-to-head in 9:03 at 5-on-5, Toronto’s captain emerged with a plus-three shot differential (6-3) a 64 percent share of the expected goals, while being on the ice for two Leafs goals with none against, via Natural Stat Trick. He comprehensively won his individual matchup, and may have suffered a bit from some poor shooting luck, a resounding theme of his 2024-25 campaign at large.
Matthews was creating chances constantly throughout the first period, in what may have been one of the best periods from the Core Five overall. He rode out Sam Reinhart in the defensive zone to facilitate an easy exit, and he almost solved Sergei Bobrovsky with a last-second deflection of Mitch Marner’s point shot. Matthews ripped a dangerous wrist shot that Bobrovsky corralled, for a Leafs’ offensive zone faceoff, and he was a menace in the faceoff dot, outperforming Barkov, winning 60 percent of his draws on the night.
Knies is emerging into a bonafide star for the Maple Leafs, and he won puck backs constantly, creating Matthews’ best chance of the night. Matthews was in a prime scoring location after Knies drilled Seth Jones into the board, setting up No. 34 with a golden opportunity, but he missed the net. It may be frustrating, but the process is more important here: Barkov loses contain on Matthews entirely, keeping eyes on Marner for too long before switching over to Knies, leaving Matthews wide-open. It’s rare to see Barkov and Reinhart make defensive mistakes constantly, but Matthews commands a gravity effect, even in a down shooting year relative to his standards, and it created time and space — the adage all players refer to when discussing how to shut down elite offensive talents — for his linemates.
Barkov also struggled badly against the Max Pacioretty-John Tavares-William Nylander line. Pacioretty drilled Barkov moments prior to Nylander’s second goal, and the Panthers’ captain dragged down Tavares by the stick for a minor penalty shortly after Chris Tanev scored in the second frame. And for a team that has rarely lost in the past two years, Barkov knows what’s at stake in Game 2. It’s possible his line is primarily assigned to the Tavares-Nylander line in Game 2, but they performed poorly against Toronto’s second line on Monday, especially in transition, where Nylander’s elite speed and playmaking kept the Panthers’ completely off-balance.
Who will win the captain’s matchup in Game 2? In a series where aspect will be analyzed to a microscopic degree, with two evenly matched teams, this may be the determining factor on Wednesday night.
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