Matvei Michkov Can Take Flyers’ Power Play to the Next Level

One of the biggest limiters of the Philadelphia Flyers’ upside over the past few seasons has been their power play. Finishing with the worst scoring efficiency in their last three campaigns, no franchise has ever had a man advantage so consistently in the dumps. But that seems to be changing with the presence of one player in particular: Matvei Michkov.

Make no mistake, having someone like defenseman Jamie Drysdale, acquired via trade in January, at full health should be very beneficial. But it is Michkov who can help the Orange and Black take the next step. Already showcasing a bit of what he can provide in the preseason, let’s analyze his play and what he immediately adds to the team.

Flyers’ Preseason Shift in Power-Play Production

Since 2021-22, the Flyers’ power play has been unable to generate scoring chances and, as a result, unable to score. These same themes have been apparent in the preseason.

On The Hockey Writers Substack, I analyzed the correlation between power-play production in the preseason versus the regular season (among other things, too!). Instead of using actual goals to quantify the term “production”, I used expected goals per 60 minutes (xGF/60). Expected goals are essentially a metric that tracks the probability that a certain shot will go in the net—a blast from the point is less likely to find its way behind a netminder than one from the slot. Goals tend to be more inconsistent than expected goals, so I found it more logical to use the latter for my data to mitigate the impact of the small sample size of the preseason.

I found a moderate correlation between where a team’s power-play xGF/60 total ranked from 2021-22 to 2023-24 in the preseason and the regular season—generating high-quality scoring chances in September is usually a good sign for what the future holds (from ‘Does Performance in the NHL Preseason Lead to Success in the Regular Season?,’ The Hockey Writers – NHL Stuff, September 2024).

So, where did the Flyers rank in this department among all NHL clubs? Here are their preseason (on the left) versus their regular-season (on the right) finishes in xGF/60 since 2021-22:

For the Flyers, their preseason ranks in xGF/60 have directly correlated to the regular season. When long-time captain Claude Giroux departed late in their 2021-22 campaign, the numbers showed it—there has been nothing redeeming about their man advantage ever since. So, where does that lead us to? This preseason.

Led by Michkov, the Flyers’ power play is actually producing at respectable levels again. As of the publishing of this article, they are fourth in xGF/60, and they have their 19-year-old to thank. For the first time in years, their man advantage looks dangerous—even if it’s “just preseason”, Michkov has been the X-factor for this drastic shift.