The futures of Mitch Marner and John Tavares will be heavily debated this summer, next season, and possibly debated again after the Maple Leafs lift the Stanley Cup next June. They aren’t the only significant re-signings that can take place though and the Leafs will have three strong support players come up for renewal in just under a year’s time. Matthew Knies, Jake McCabe, and Pontus Holmberg could all be offered a little job security this summer by Brad Treliving, and it is worth exploring what those deals could look like.
Matthew Knies
Knies is the straightforward one of the trio as he is a restricted free agent without arbitration rights. He’s also very much part of the Leafs’ future and someone they will want to get signed before teams can offer sheet, the only real downside to his contract situation.
It’s not likely that money will be much of an issue in this situation but the sticking point will be term. The Leafs will likely want to go with a max contract on the promising forward and lock him in for as cheap as they can for as long as they can, but Knies might prefer either a short term bridge that will get him re-assessed as he gains NHL experience and possibly has more significant numbers to his name or he might be looking for something that sees his contract expire right at his eligibility for unrestricted free agency.
Using contract projections on an entry level player that is going to have variance between bridge deals and pay for potential deals is tricky. There is also going to be a significant difference between signing Knies now vs. after this season which represents a gamble for both the club and the player. Craig Berube and his intended utilization of Matthew Knies might have a significant impact on his earnings and while Evolving Hockey’s projections put Knies at the $2M mark and assuming a bridge deal, that might be less optimal than something like 7 or 8 years at $3.5M, which would involve both sides risking money on the table rather than fully knowing where Knies rightfully belongs.
If Knies’ entry level deal being delayed a season so he could return to the University of Minnesota for another year is any indication, it’s that Knies isn’t rushing into the quick money. There’s a bit of a bet on himself way of thinking at play and that likely sees him on a two year deal for around $3M AAV. It also likely means that he won’t be looking to sign until next summer.
Jake McCabe
McCabe will be an interesting situation for the Leafs as well now they are entering a situation where they’ll be paying the entirety of his contract. Chris Tanev’s cap hit probably puts a barrier in place for what the Leafs would be willing to pay here, and even the contract projections have McCabe at around $4M for only three years. That’s not a bad situation for the Leafs but it will come down to how committed Jake is to stay with the Leafs. Presumably he can make more elsewhere and possibly he wants to return to the USA.
McCabe is another player that might want to test how life is under Craig Berube before committing to a contract and the Leafs might be thinking the same thing. On the flip side, McCabe’s injury history both historic and recent might incentivize him to lock in early.
The Dylan DeMelo $4.9M AAV for 4 years as well as the Tanev and Ekman-Larsson signings in Toronto probably point to McCabe being a $4M AAV guy unless a team gets desperate.
Pontus Holmberg
So Holmberg is a bit more of a replacement level guy than the other two mentioned and leaving him off of consideration for a next contract the way I’m treating Conor Timmins in this scenario wouldn’t have been much of an issue. Where Holmberg interests me a little more is if the Leafs do move on from David Kampf or if Holmberg takes a step forward to not only fill a 4C role but potentially take on 3C duties or play signifcant minutes on the wing. Holmberg is a wild card but the type of player that seems synonymous with the type of team that Craig Berube had in St. Louis. I’m betting he’ll like Holmberg and want him back and if the Leafs can get some term to something around a $1.5M AAV deal with Holmberg it’s a win for all sides.
Given that Brad Treliving seems to love giving players $1.35M AAV deals, offering one up to Holmberg in time only makes sense.
Marner and Tavares this trio are not. And with Joseph Woll signed already, some of the heavy lifting on the support staff has already been taken care of. Reasonably speaking, Knies, McCabe, and Holmberg will comfortably have a combined cap hit below $10M and that means that even if the salary cap were to remain flat, the Maple Leafs could comfortably “run it back.” (Just like you always wanted.)
