Michael Penix Jr. 2025 NFL Redraft Outlook: Sleeper QB with Big Upside

Michael Penix Jr. may not be a household name just yet, but smart fantasy football managers know that the real game-changers are often found in the late rounds. Atlanta’s second-year quarterback is shaping up to be one of those gems, and this could be the year he jumps onto everyone’s radar. His performance in the closing weeks of last season turned a few heads, and if you’re willing to roll the dice, Penix Jr. might just lead your team to glory.

Michael Penix Jr. 2024 Stats and Fantasy Production

Okay, let’s break it down. Penix wrapped up the 2024 season with a respectable average of 15.2 fantasy points per game across Weeks 16-18. Not too shabby for a guy finding his NFL footing! He ranked sixth in deep-throw rate, fourth in “hero throw” rate (those gutsy, thread-the-needle passes), and posted the second-highest average depth of target (aDOT) among starting QBs. Translation? The man isn’t afraid to take risks and stretch the field. Pair that with his aggressive playstyle, and it’s clear he’s got the potential to deliver some serious fantasy fireworks.

One of the biggest reasons to believe in Penix Jr.? He’s surrounded by a treasure chest of offensive tools. Pro Bowl-caliber tight end Kyle Pitts? Check. Budding star wideout Drake London? Oh, absolutely. And don’t forget Bijan Robinson, an explosive running back who’ll keep defenses honest. Plus, the Falcons recently added Darnell Mooney, a sneaky-good wide receiver who could thrive in Penix’s offense. With this arsenal, Michael Penix Jr. just needs to keep the wheels turning to make some magic happen.

Sure, Penix isn’t a perfect prospect just yet. His catchable target rate and CPOE (completion percentage over expectation) both hovered around league-average last season. And if we’re being honest, he’s not going to pad your fantasy totals with his legs (dude’s not exactly Lamar Jackson out there). But that just means he’ll need to refine his pocket game and rack up points through the air.

That’s not a knock on Penix; it’s a challenge that he seems well-equipped to tackle under the Falcons’ developing offense led by Zac Robinson, a product of Sean McVay’s coaching tree.

Michael Penix Jr. 2025 Fantasy Outlook

This season, Penix has all the ingredients for some breakout games, especially if you’re in the market for a streaming QB with high spike-week potential. Atlanta boasts one of the league’s friendlier schedules for quarterbacks (ranked fifth easiest), which means Penix Jr. should get plenty of opportunities to thrive. Still, we wouldn’t peg him as your everyday starter; he profiles more as a high-risk, high-reward QB2. If you’re drafting in a deeper league or looking for an upside play in best-ball formats, Penix should absolutely be on your radar.

Currently sitting at an ADP of QB22 (157 overall), Michael Penix Jr. is practically a steal in the late rounds of most drafts. At that value, you’re not burning significant draft capital, but the potential payoff could be massive. If everything clicks for Penix and the Falcons’ offense, he could realistically creep into low-end QB1 territory by season’s end.