It’s easy to see a path where some of the current Maple Leafs on the roster will be shown the door. If new players are coming in at the trade deadline someone is going to come out.
When it comes to moving on from one of these players it seems like the most likely decision that Brad Treliving will make is to pay a little higher price on an asset that he is acquiring to send out a contract/roster spot/salary that is interfering with the Leafs being compliant with the collective agreement and NHL rulebook. The Leafs have certainly dealt away players that way before, but in this short series of articles, the idea of dealing players based on their potential merit around the league will be explored before things ultimately play out the way we expect them to and a fourth round pick is attached to a deal to make the Leafs’ trade partner take back some salary.
Ryan Reaves was previously covered, today it’s Max Domi.
Re-signing Max Domi didn’t seem like a bad idea if it came at the right price. This season it wasn’t the right price but arguably by next season Domi’s AAV of $3.75M will be standard issue for a middle six winger.
A lot of the issues with Domi stem from utilization and much like how Sheldon Keefe needed to go through the motions in 2023-24, Craig Berube is doing the same this year to realize that it’s not a matter of being able to get through to Domi or not, it’s that he lacks to chops to be a regular centre in the league. A brief fill-in for a couple of games, go nuts, but not a night in/night out centre. That’s hurt the perception of Domi a lot this year and hasn’t allowed him to be at his best.
Another realization is that Max Domi is always going to be a defensive liability. You can put him with two Selke calibre linemates and he’ll find a way to bring them down more than they will be able to elevate him. Sheltering Domi and getting him off the ice at the right times is essential, and again, that’s a lot harder to do when he’s your centre.
The final thing is that Domi isn’t going to carry a line. He can be a nice piece on a line, but he can’t be the best player. He needs to support at least one player better than him and with injuries to the Leafs forward group, at times Domi has been asked to carry more than he can handle.
If the Leafs make all the accommodations, they can for him, he’s not a bad agitating little playmaker. And if another team thinks they can find a similar fit for Domi where he plays alongside good players with a chance to make them better offensively, he’s worth taking a look at. For the Leafs, they’ve found cheaper options, and better options that really make it hard to see where Domi fits in if there is an upgrade coming at centre. He’s not a bad option alongside Matthews when the Leafs want to spread their top three forwards around the lineup, but unless the Leafs see Domi as a potential fit for the new guy they intend to bring in, cutting their losses may make the most sense.
Domi’s no trade clause
Max Domi has 13 teams on his no trade list. Presumably after bouncing around teams like Montreal, Chicago, Columbus, and Arizona before landing on the Leafs, most of Domi’s list is going to include projected bottom dwellers. That throws a bit of a wrench in the plans of everyone who likes to point out his productive time in Chicago, their need for offence, and the benefit of a reunion. Max Domi probably isn’t as enthused as the rest of us, at least not until the off-season.
Domi’s no trade clause lasts throughout the remainder of his contract.
Who would want Max Domi?
Bubble teams that could use more offence but don’t want to go big game hunting. Teams that realize they might struggle to bring in offensive players next season and need to consider options now. Teams presently sitting on a player of their own that could benefit from a change of scenery that they think they can sell the Leafs on. Whatever lottery team Max Domi forgot to put on his no trade list that wants to start thinking about their forward group for next season and want an exciting enough player to sell some tickets after the trade deadline.
Tbe top third of the league is likely to leave Domi alone, but here are a few options that could make sense.
The New York Rangers have already burned through their best assets in the acquisition of J.T. Miller but still have cap space to do more. With Reilly Smith’s contract expiring the Rangers might want to take the cash out price on him and could easily absorb Domi into their lineup at the same price. Better yet, they can afford Domi this season and with Smith’s contract expiring, Domi is still easy to make work cap wise next year too. Domi would allow for the Rangers to spread their offence around and make use of their cap space in a low risk way.
I often wonder how Max Domi hasn’t been a Red Wing yet. He’d definitely fit with what looks like a top to bottom collection of middle six players who are either streaky, over the hill, or quality role players on a team that wasn’t ready for what they had to bring. I’m not sure Max Domi makes the Red Wings that much better, but he fits in with their crowd. Maybe one more of the same gets them closer to the playoffs. The Wings could use Domi’s offence and Steve Yzerman is always good for one outside the box move at the trade deadline, it’s probably just a matter of Domi not being a bold enough move.
If Steve Yzerman is good for an unexpected move, the same can absolutely be said about the Vancouver Canucks and after the departure of J.T. Miller, adding more offence makes sense. It’s just Max Domi is going be far down the wish list. The Canucks are no strangers to bringing in change of scenery players and because they aren’t shy about flipping them quickly when they don’t work out, Domi is a potential fit, it’s just likely he’s two hours until the deadline target not a three weeks out target.
Boston makes my list largely for the bizarre Marky Mark/Tie Domi bromance angle. As forwards like Trent Frederic and potentially Brad Marchand move on from Boston, there will likely be a desire to have someone to backfill them as Boston is far more likely to attempt a retooling rather than a wholesale ground up rebuild. Domi has a skillset that can complement someone like Pastrnak and while his oblivious nature towards the defensive zone probably won’t play well in Boston, his feistiness will.
What would the return look like?
Domi’s season has left a lot to be desired but looking throughout his career you can see that a bad year or a bad start doesn’t equate to him being completely washed. When you find the right fit for him and get him playing in an engaged way, he’s capable of living up to the value of his contract. There are worse things than the Leafs holding onto Domi and exclusively using him in a winger capacity as long as the salary cap and line combinations justify it.
That said, Domi isn’t someone that would be dealt as a premium asset and potentially cap relief would be the best return for Domi, so a later pick and getting the cap room would be a solid move by Brad Treliving.
In the event that other teams aren’t looking to give up cap space, you have to look at a team that is wanting to move on from a defenceman as a potential fit, where Domi is flipped for a defenceman in a similar situation that could fit into the Leafs 4th or 5th spot on the blueline. Given the teams that I’ve listed, Andrew Peeke of the Bruins, Carson Soucy of the Canucks, and Jeff Petry of the Red Wings make some sense.
Mitigating Seller’s Remorse
The Leafs already have mitigated a lot of that and presumably they wouldn’t be trading Domi unless they are upgrading at third line centre which would mitigate the risk further. If Calle Jarnkrok returns that is another bottom six winger that has some offensive ability coming in and potentially moving Domi be a reason to hang onto Nick Robertson for the rest of the year as well. The Leafs also have Alex Nylander as an affordable replacement option for secondary scoring that could be worth a longer look and Fraser Minten is clearly a bottom six centre option that joins with the Holmberg, Dewar, Lorentz options for moving wingers over to the middle in that depth capacity.
Prediction
The likelihood of Domi moving seems entirely dependent on whether Brad Treliving is going big game hunting or not and if his preference towards getting his trade partners to retain salary. If salary retention is less of an option, the likelihood of a Domi move increases greatly.
That said, the best outcome for the Leafs might be finding a way to use Domi in a wing role and seeing if he turns his year around.
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