New Ashton Jeanty roadblock for Bears in top analyst's mock draft

For weeks it would have surprised no one following the Bears if their choice in the draft at No. 10 overall would come down to taking tight end Tyler Warren from Penn State.

They sit in a place where the premium players could be gone and Warren is a unique talent who could still be available 10th.

However, they have that running back need to satisfy and if Ashton Jeanty slipped through the top nine, they could have their main ball carrier for the future.

It just looks extremely unlikely this can happen with the Raiders drafting sixth and looking at running backs. Other teams who could be in the market for backs draft before No. 10, like the Saints. And then there is the chance Dallas or a team needing a back could trade up ahead of 10.

A mock draft by one of the most respected draft analysts makes it look even more unlikely the Bears will get Jeanty 10th because he gets selected even before the Raiders.

The Athletic's Dane Brugler released his full seven-round mock draft in conjuction with The Beast, his annual listing and description of all the players available in this group of players. Brugler sees something happening here not seen by many others.

He has Jeanty being drafted fifth overall by Jacksonville. As a result, and because the top offensive linemen are already taken in this mock draft, he has the Bears taking Warren just like many other mock drafts have predicted. Mel Kiper, Daniel Jeremiah and the consensus for the NFL Mock Draft Data Base all point to Warren for the Bears, too.

The Jacksonville pick didn't bother Brugler, even if there are other needs besides running backs.

"If the Jaguars had a chance at a high-level corner here, that is the direction they should go," Brugler wrote. "But draft is light at the top and Jeanty is the best player available.

"He would give the Jacksonville offense an immediate upgrade."

The thing is, there are cornerbacks available.

Texas cornerback Jahdae Barron and Michigan's Will Johnson might be the highest available and both are projected to be first-round picks, just not quite in the top 12 picks.

The Jaguars have Tank Bigsby and Travis Etienne Jr. as their top ball carriers and were 25th in rushing, and new coach Liam Coen leans heavily on the running game. The Buccaneers were fourth in rushing last year with Coen as coordinator. 

However, the Jaguars have other issues to address.

ESPN reported cornerback, defensive tackle and safety to be their biggest needs and it's probably the reason NFL Mock Draft Data Base has detected Michigan defensive tackle Mason Graham going to the Jaguars at No. 5 on 74% of mock drafts it tracks. Only Cameron Ward (No. 1, 96%) and Travis Hunter (No. 2, 75%) have higher levels of popularity on mock drafts to go to a particular team than Graham has with the Jaguars.

The Jaguars' dream scenario wouldn't even involve Jeanty, according to an article written by Sports Illustrated's Gilberto Manzano on each team's dream scenario. He has the Jaguars' dream being an aggressive move up in order to draft Hunter second, giving them the cornerback they covet as well as a dangerous wide receiver.

As for the Bears' dream scenario? This should be easy, right?

Wrong. It isn't Jeanty, at least according to Manzano

He says their dream should be selecting offensive linemen with both of their first two draft picks.

"Chicago’s roster is in a good place, but that talent won’t go far without protecting Caleb Williams," he wrote. "Missouri offensive tackle Armand Membou at No. 10 and a highly-rated guard such as Ohio State’s Donovan Jackson or North Dakota State’s Grey Zabel in the second round would be the perfect start to the Ben Johnson era in Chicago."

Zabel doesn't seem likely to go in Round 2 and the Bears are in much greater need of a running back than they are two offensive linemen.

Their dream scenario should be drafting Jeanty and then Oregon tackle Josh Conerly in Round 2, before turning to defense. Or even taking running back first, then two offensive linemen.

Regardless, with the Raiders and now, at least in Brugler's view, the Jaguars, in play for Jeanty, it would appear the Bears actually might need to shoot for two linemen or accept a tight end at No. 10.