While I was waiting on (finally) a conclusion to the tush-push saga, I asked you guys for questions. You gave me plenty. Here are some answers …
From Kyle Winn (@ProInSomething): Do you think 3 yrs $90m with $60m guaranteed would get a Trey Hendrickson deal done?
From Randy Hollingsworth (@RandyHollings13): What happens with Trey Hendrickson?
From Adam Peters Dynasty (@Stephenrosssti1): What happens with Trey Hendrickson and Bengals?
As Kyle, Randy and AP Dynasty show you here, there was no shortage of Trey Hendrickson questions in the mailbag, so I figured this was a good place to reset the situation.
Hendrickson’s first contract grumbles came two years ago. During the COVID-19-impacted offseason of 2021, he did a four-year, $60 million deal to leave the New Orleans Saints for the Cincinnati Bengals—a good deal in a depressed market, but one that wouldn’t age well for him. After 22 sacks in his first two seasons in Cincinnati, he sought a correction, and got a one-year, $21 million extension as a Band-Aid just before camp in ’23. After a 17.5-sack season that fall, he looked for another one, and didn’t get it. He had 17.5 sacks again last year. And here we are.
Basically, what all that adds up to is a guy who probably won’t be lining up to take any kind of hometown discount. In fact, it’s no sure thing that he’d even play on his existing contract when push comes to shove and we get closer to real games being played.
So where would he want to be paid? It may be hard for Hendrickson to argue he should change the market like Myles Garrett and Nick Bosa did, but he’d certainly be within his rights to ask for a deal commensurate with what Danielle Hunter and Maxx Crosby got, given that both those guys are deeper into their careers and still got market corrections. Both, by the way, are over $35 million in APY on their new deals, so I’m not sure that, Kyle, your proposal of $90 million over three years works.
From Kevin Jack (@kevin_j9): Odds that Arch returns to school next year? If he’s out of the draft, who is your top QB?
I think odds are good that Arch Manning will remain a Texas Longhorn in 2026. Since I’ve made my point on this repeatedly, the abridged version—every bit of his family’s history, from his uncles’ decisions to exhaust their own college eligibility, to how his dad Cooper has managed the son as a person, to the track record of more experienced college quarterbacks excelling earlier in the pros, screams that Manning is staying in Austin a while.
And that’s a good thing. Also, we simply don’t have enough evidence on Arch Manning yet that shows he’s some lock to be the first overall pick. He may get there. He’s not there yet.
As for the guys who likely will be in the draft, I think LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier, Penn State’s Drew Allar, South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers and Clemson’s Cade Klubnik are all in the “have a chance” category. None of them are Caleb Williams coming into the 2023 college season or Trevor Lawrence going into the ‘20 college season. But I think each has a shot to go in the top half of the first round if things go according to plan for them in the fall.
From DJS815 (@djs815): Will Jaire Alexander stay with GB?
DJS, I’d say yes—at this point, teams have done the bulk of their roster building, and have spent to their cash and cap budgets, and are moving forward with their groups. Maybe an injury somewhere creates some urgency, but as it stands, I think Alexander is stuck, and may have to play ball with the Packers.
He’s due to make $17.5 million. Green Bay wanted him to take a pay cut earlier in the season. He refused, and hoped they’d cut him so he could find a new home unencumbered. Instead, the Packers sat on his rights. Now there’s a decision to make. So is a compromise coming? My guess would be that it could arrive in the form of a contract revision that moves some money into per-game roster bonuses, protecting the team against injury, with a chance to make something more than the $17.5 million if he stays healthy and plays at a really high level.
We’ll see.
From Staley's Place (@StaleysPlace): Submitting again: If an expansion team got the first 50 picks in a draft, would they win the next year's Super Bowl?
I answered it two weeks ago. But here’s my answer again …
I think the answer is … eventually. You wouldn’t win with a team full of rookies. But, within, say, three years, I think that team would be at a championship level. But to test it, I figured I’d take the 2021 draft class, from four years ago, so young guys now in their prime, and put together the team, limiting myself to the top 75 selections, so we have flexibility to draft for need, but we’re not doing revisionist history on later picks …
QB: Trevor Lawrence
RB: Najee Harris
WR: Ja’Marr Chase
WR: Jaylen Waddle
WR: DeVonta Smith
TE: Kyle Pitts
LT: Christian Darrisaw
LG: Rashawn Slater
C: Landon Dickerson
RG: Alijah Vera-Tucker
RT: Penei Sewell
DE: Greg Rousseau
DT: Alim McNeill
DT: Milton Williams
DE: Jaelen Phillips
LB: Micah Parsons
LB: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah
LB: Nick Bolton
CB: Patrick Surtain II
S: Tre’Von Moehrig
S: Andre Cisco
CB: Jaycee Horn
I’d say you can win with that group.
From The War Room NFL Draft Podcast (@WarRoomDraft): Any truth to the Chris Olave and Jets trade rumors?
War Room, no. The Saints got inquiries from the Browns and Steelers early in the offseason, and rebuffed them, and Olave’s had a really nice offseason since. Maybe someone blows New Orleans away with an offer. But he’s not on the block, and I have a hard time thinking he’s going to be traded.
From Big Daddy (@bigdaddybustard): Who starts the most games for the Browns this season?
Big Daddy, that’s a great question. And it’s really hard to answer right now. My gut tells me that it’ll be Joe Flacco—because he’s the one player brought in there specifically to start.
But there’s really not much guarantee of anything beyond the four quarterbacks getting a fair chance in the spring. I would say, because reps come at a premium in the summer, and there’ll be a football season to get ready for and an offense to assemble, Kevin Stefanski and Tommy Rees will want to have narrowed the competition a bit by the start of camp. Which, of course, makes the spring more important than it might have otherwise been for the QBs.
That said, this one is still wide open.
From Cancel Billionaires; Normalize Empathy (@ConSensation00): Would you rather have Darnold + Milroe or Geno for the next 3 years on a league average roster?
Cancel Guy, I’d say … probably Sam Darnold and Jalen Milroe. I do think, as it stands right now, you have a better chance with Geno Smith, if slightly, than Darnold. But Darnold still has more untapped upside, as I see it, and you get at least a swing on a potential quarterback of the future with Milroe.
From William Johnson (@BuzzBomb9): With some people leaving Patriots Front Office after the draft is Wolf on a clock and Cowden waiting him out?
No, William. If that was the case, this month was the time for that to happen. That the Patriots are moving forward, post-draft, with EVP of player personnel Eliot Wolf, VP of player personnel Ryan Cowden and, of course, head coach Mike Vrabel working together is confirmation that this will be the brass going forward.
Now, things could always go wrong down the line. But the plan is the plan, and it’s apparent now that Wolf was part of it all along.
From thedude444 (@thedude4442): When's the Thuney extension going to be?
The dude, the Joe Thuney extension is done! And good for him. The new Bears guard, now 32, has one of the most amazing statistical lines that no one ever talks about—over nine years, he’s never played fewer than 97% of his team’s offensive snaps in a season. Starting in 2016, he’s gone 100%, 100%, 100%, 99%, 97%, 99%, 98%, 97%, and 97% of the snaps, while missing just two games. That’s beyond staggering.
Anyway, I figured we could get a quick appreciation for that in here. His deal with the Bears is a good one. He had $16 million left. The two-year extension is for $35 million in new money, bringing his three-year total to $51 million, with $33.5 million fully guaranteed. That $33.5 million is the first two years of the deal, with the team holding a de facto option for 2027 on him at $17.5 million.
From Matt Williamson (@willy4412): Who will start at LT for the Bears?
Matt, that’s a good question. Three-year starter Braxton Jones is in a contract year. Third-round pick Ozzie Trapilo has talent to work with. Last year’s third-rounder, Yale’s own Kiran Amegadjie, is in the mix too. And if that three-man derby doesn’t produce a viable starter, former 10th overall pick Darnell Wright could, athletically, 100% pull off a flip to the left side from right tackle.
The key is Ben Johnson and his staff getting a fresh set of eyes on the candidates. With Thuney, Drew Dalman and Jonah Jackson inside, the Bears have a nice foundation to work from. But how the tackle spots come together is still an open question, and will determine how good the line will be. It’s fair to say Wright will likely be one starter. We’ll see which side it’s on, and who his bookend is.
From Michael Garfield (@garf): Thoughts on the Oxford comma? Yay, nay, or sometimes?
I just looked up the definition of an Oxford comma, and found out that it’s “not grammatically correct, but it’s also not grammatically incorrect.” And I generally don’t use it, but I guess I don’t oppose other people going down that road.
From Selz (@Selzwood): As a fan, Rank your Pro Teams + OSU… not incl. NFL.
Ohio State football, then everyone else. I also root for my high school alma mater, Lincoln-Sudbury, and will obviously root for my kids’ high school when they get there. For me at least, covering pro sports has made it harder for me to be rabid about pro teams—which doesn’t mean I don’t really enjoy the sports (I do). I just feel like there’s more of a tangible connection to the schools I went to. I also understand other people view that stuff differently than I do, and that’s O.K., too.
From BuffaLowDown (@BuffaLowDown): Do you expect a James Cook contract solution to happen anytime soon?
I do think that Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley might help define the market a bit for James Cook. Those guys are obviously different players, but can create a reasonable ceiling for what Cook will make. I’d think something in the $15 million per year neighborhood would be reasonable for everyone involved.
From Stuart Landsverk (@SJLandsverk): Does Chicago look at veteran FAs like Chubb for their running back room?
Not yet.
Why? You can start D’Andre Swift, who was with Johnson in Detroit. The reason the Lions traded Swift actually wasn’t about ability—it was about durability. His injury history was enough for Detroit to decide that extending him before the 2023 season wouldn’t be on the table, so they moved him to Philadelphia. Two years later, they’re reunited. Johnson knows how to use him and, health-permitting, I think there’s a chance Swift has a really nice year.
Then, there’s Roschon Johnson. The 2023 fourth-rounder has ability, and his 225-pound build could fit him into the David Montgomery role in Johnson’s offense, with Swift playing a poor man’s Jahmyr Gibbs.
That wouldn’t give Chicago the best backfield in football or anything like that. But it would mean that the team wouldn’t have to overreach to find new answers at the position.
From Jason (@RabbitohCards): Does Travis Etienne have any trade value? Or will Coen get him more involved in the passing game? Who is WR3 for the Jags?
Jason, there was a lot of buzz before the draft that Travis Etienne might be available via trade. That didn’t come to pass, but I wouldn’t slam the door shut on the other shoe dropping if someone is desperate for help at the position. If not, I think he can be a valuable joker type of weapon for Liam Coen. And as for who is “WR3”, I’d say the No. 1 guy is Brian Thomas Jr., and Travis Hunter and Dyami Brown will be the other starters at the position.
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