The return of Auston Matthews is looming. While a 7-2 record in his absence was the ideal outcome for the Leafs, all it took was one loss to shift the narrative back to scoring. We’ll touch on that in a bit. The Leafs will still be anything but a 100% healthy group and with players like Knies, Pacioretty, and Domi absent, it’s hard to know what a healthy Leafs’ forward lineup will look like, but we’ll take a guess at that too in some of this week’s stray thoughts.
The end of the Nick Robertson era is approaching
If it wasn’t for the Maple Leafs having eight forwards out of the lineup or questionable for tonight’s game, the decision to sit Nick Robertson would be a no-brainer. As players start to return from injury and suspension it seems like the conversation will start shifting to whether you can make a case for Robertson to stay in the lineup.
Ryan Reaves? It is likely his toughness brings enough to the table every night that he’d have preference over Robertson.
Connor Dewar? He hasn’t produced anything, but a depth centre, penalty killer, and energy player is going to have merit in the bottom six.
Fraser Minten or Nikita Grebenkin? Craig Berube already trusts them in more situations than Nick Robertson.
Alex Steeves? This might be the strongest case, but Steeves, like Dewar seems to fit the bottom six blueprint more than Robertson.
It’s looking like the end for Robertson and given the number of players with looming returns, it isn’t just a matter of being the better alternative than Reaves or Steeves, it’s a tough sell that he belongs at all. And at this point, that should be fine from a Leafs perspective.
The injury to Auston Matthews, as well as the injuries to Matthew Knies, Max Pacioretty, and Max Domi opened the door for Nick Robertson to play a bigger offensive role. Until this month, most of the objections to moving on from Robertson were based on the forward not getting enough chances to play in ideal offensive situations. The past nine games have been an opportunity to play on scoring lines and see regular powerplay time. Not only has Robertson remained pointless since the 7th game of the season, but there wasn’t a spike in shots over the past nine games.
While Pontus Holmberg has been the most frequent linemate of Nick Robertson this season, John Tavares, William Nylander, Bobby McMann, Max Pacioretty, and Max Domi have all played over 30 minutes with Robertson this season. There has been a far greater time on ice with scoring forwards than with Lorentz, Kampf, and Dewar. Robertson has been getting a chance to deliver and coming up flat. And with 19 games played this season, having one goal and no assists is making the case for Robertson’s 14 goal 2023-24 as his ceiling.
In 2023-24, Robertson was still a streaky scorer, but his pointless streaks never exceeded four games (until the playoffs, where he was held pointless.) This current funk is the worst of Robertson’s pro career and might be aided by the fact that pretty much every Leaf forward is in the same boat at 5v5 this year. It’s hard to condemn Robertson for the same issues that are afflicting Mitch Marner, John Tavares, and William Nylander. Still, it is also increasingly difficult to see the value in having Robertson in the lineup.
It’s possible that Robertson finds his place in the NHL but seems like that place will be as a very specific type of winger. Robertson compares to the Daniel Sprong and Brandon Pirri that he could be finishing option on a team desperate for scoring help and few options. On the current Leafs lineup he’s not a fit.
Robertson has now had his chance under two coaches and Craig Berube has been more than fair about giving Nick a real look. As the Maple Leafs roster gets healthier, cutting ties with Robertson makes sense.
The low 5v5 scoring issue
The Maple Leafs presently have the 7th lowest goals for at 5v5 in the league. Of course, if you are telling the full story, they have the second best goals against at 5v5 in the league at 30, and therefor still own at an impressive +9 differential, but this is about looking at even strength scoring in isolation. Or is it?
In the Auston Matthews is healthy games (the first 13 games of the season) the Leafs had a 3.02 GF/60, good enough for 9th best in the league and they still had a strong GA/60 of 2.12 (also 9th best in the league.)
In the nine games since losing Auston Matthews, the Leafs have had a 1.26 GF/60 but have corrected for that by also holding their opposition to that same number. The GF being absolutely terrible but the GA being absolutely outstanding. Additionally, some consideration needs to be given to the fact that other offensive helpers like Pacioretty and Domi have also been out of the lineup for long stretches, as well as short absence from Matthew Knies as well. The thin situation up the middle for the Leafs with a lack of centres certainly shifts their style of play to the conservative approach and some drop off of offensive production was to be expected.
Yes, 1.26 GF/60 5v5 isn’t great, but what we’ve learned about the Leafs in this window of time is still more encouraging, especially knowing that offensive help is on the way.
The Leafs have shown they are capable of playing stingy, shutdown hockey, and solid team defence. This is something that has been lacking during the Keefe years and with a drop in third period goals against, the Maple Leafs have also proven capable of protecting leads. The system is working. And what is interesting is that the system seems to be working without more expensive bottom six forward options like David Kampf and Calle Jarnkrok, who many already viewed as potential cap relief heading into the season, but the case is being more firmly made in their absence as the Leafs are thriving defensively and on the penalty kill.
The return of Auston Matthews has the double benefit of aided the Leafs offensively and defensively, as will the return of Matthew Knies. The rest of the returns seem like they will require some consideration of whether or not they are a fit for what has been working for the Leafs under Craig Berube’s tighter 5v5 hockey.
What can be learned from the Rangers
It was Thanksgiving in America this week and I thought I’d share one thing that I’m thankful for. It’s NHL teams that do interesting things. The Rangers are interesting at the moment, so despite a lifetime of considering them one of my least favourite teams, I’m thankful for them at the moment.
Putting Jacob Trouba and Chris Kreider on the trade market is damned interesting and the fallout from that decision will probably keep us passively entertained right up until the trade deadline.
This isn’t going to devolve into making a case for either Chris Kreider or Jacob Trouba. Both are good players that I would happily see on the Maple Leafs if the salary cap allowed for it but given that the Leafs have Kreider like options in their lineup and Trouba is likely to veto any trade out of the United States, it’s not worth the time. Instead, I’ll focus on the real reason I appreciate what the Rangers are doing here.
The Rangers have earned my respect because they are doing something the Leafs haven’t done. They are a contending team that is doing good but not great and they are saying if we want this team to improve, we are going to need to make some bold decisions around some of our top players. They are committing to move on from their captain and one of their top goal scorers because they believe there is a better path forward.
I’m not saying the Leafs are in that situation at the moment. Sitting at the top of the Atlantic is no easy task and bringing in Anthony Stolarz, Chris Tanev, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and Craig Berube has resulted in a new direction for the Leafs already, but come June, if the Leafs aren’t parading through the streets of Toronto with the cup, I hope the organization is finally ready to have some tougher conversations about what direction the team needs to go in and whether significant changes need to be made to achieve it.
