For years, Aaron Rodgers starred in commercials for State Farm. Jordan Love’s receivers will not be starring for All-State.
That’s because the Packers were not in good hands.
Coming off a breakout second half of his debut season as the team’s starting quarterback in 2023, Love opened with the fourth-lowest NFL MVP odds last year. Instead, his follow-up season was largely a disappointment. Not only did he throw for fewer yards and touchdowns, but his completion percentage was down and his interception percentage was up.
At organized team activities this week, coach Matt LaFleur defended his quarterback.
“I think there’s a narrative out there, for whatever reason, that he wasn’t as productive as the year before,” LaFleur said on Wednesday. “Well, he missed significant time. He missed the better of three games. Really, it was Indy, it was Tennessee, he went out in Jacksonville and then he went out in Chicago.
“Three games is a significant amount of time, and you’re not going to produce as much from a numbers perspective.”
LaFleur had his quarterback’s back. The same is not true for his receivers.
“Let’s be honest,” he continued, “we’ve talked about this: We did have a lot of drops last year, so there’s other circumstances that play into it. I think all in all, everybody’s going to be better, though.”
Overall, Green Bay’s quarterbacks were victimized by 28 drops, according to Pro Football Focus, with 24 for Love (8.2 percent) and four for Malik Willis (9.1 percent). Of the 28, 25 were by the receivers.
“Man, drops was a problem for me last year,” Reed said. “I’ve been on the JUGS machine every day this offseason. Obviously, that will help. Just being a better leader, just working on the top of my routes, stuff like that, just the little things.”
Players don’t stay the same. Just because Wicks and Reed dropped a lot of passes in 2024 doesn’t mean they will again in 2025. Case in point: their 2023 drop percentages.
Of 84 receivers who were targeted 50 times last season, former Packers receiver Allen Lazard had the highest drop percentage, followed by Wicks and Reed. Doubs was 19th.
Drops don’t just change from season to season. They can change during the season. During the first half of last season, Wicks caught 16 passes and had six drops. During the final seven games, he caught 23 passes with only two drops.
“You have a drop and then it weighs on you,” passing-game coordinator Jason Vrable said when asked about Wicks. “I think he’s matured so much. You know, he's always been a hard worker, he’s always practiced really really hard.
“Mentally, I think some days he was kind of going like this (motions downward). You could feel, it was almost like the whole world’s weighing on him, and I just told him, ‘Man, just let your work take care of itself. And every day you show up, outwork everybody in this room.’ And you saw at the end of the year when the ball was coming his way there was a real confidence toward the end to get open and make the play.”
Looking Ahead to 2025
As Capt. Obvious might point out, Love’s statistics would be better with a little more help from his friends.
In 2023, 30 quarterbacks dropped back at least 300 times. Love had the 18th-lowest drop rate at 6.1 percent. In 2024, 32 quarterbacks had at least 300 dropbacks. Love had the fourth-highest drop rate at 8.2 percent; though Daniel Jones (10.0 percent) and Aaron Rodgers (9.6 percent; league-worst 39 drops) were quick to say, “Hold my beer.” Or, in this case, “Drop my beer.”
Overall, Love finished 25th out of 32 with a completion rate of 63.1 percent. To pin all or even most of it on the receivers’ hands would be inaccurate. PFF has a stat called adjusted completion percentage, which turns drops into completions and ignores throwaways. Love’s new 74.7 percent would have ranked only 19th.
Still, comparing completion percentages for Love and NFC North rival Jared Goff of the Lions is like comparing apples to orangutans. Goff had five passes dropped all season; Love had that many passes dropped in the Week 9 loss to the Lions.
“To me, all those guys understand, they’re competitive,” receivers coach Ryan Mahaffey said. “As we’ve gone through, we have conversations about what we need to improve on. Those guys have an understanding that, ‘Hey, when my number’s called, I want to put myself in a position to be able to go out and help my team.’ They’re naturally competitive. They take a lot of ownership in that, and I think we’ve got an intrinsically motivated group.”
The Packers’ young receiver corps was fortified in this draft by Matthew Golden in the first round and Savion Williams in the third round. With Watson and Doubs set to be free agents after this season and Reed and Wicks after next season, their next contract will be tied to their production. And that production will be tied directly to their ability to catch the ball.
“Like I said, every day I’m on the JUGS machine so, hopefully, I minimize my drops,” Reed said. “That’s more opps for me. That’s more plays made. Other than that, man, I’m just dialing in that playbook so I know what I’m doing and when I go out there, I can play fast. So, I think that’s most important and then everything else take care of itself.”
