Fantasy football managers are coming down to the wire to make decisions ahead of Week 15. This time of the year is when simple decisions seem very complex. However, there are a few wide receivers that have underrated matchups for the first round of the fantasy playoffs.
Panthers’ Adam Thielen and Other Underrated Receiver Matchups
Courtland Sutton
Courtland Sutton has a great matchup this week against Indianapolis. The Colts run zone coverage 80% of the time, and Sutton has feasted against zone defense this season. He captures a 21.6% target share against zone defenses and averages 0.32 fantasy points per route ran against the zone.
Sutton has developed a great relationship with rookie quarterback Bo Nix, and the two are keeping the Broncos playoff hopes alive. The Colts concede an average of 7.3 yards per snap in coverage. Even with the emergence of Devaughn Vele, expect Sutton to see the majority of the work and rack up a lot of yards.
Josh Downs
Josh Downs has been the most reliable target in Indianapolis whether it’s Anthony Richardson or Joe Flacco under center. Even with a questionable tag heading into Week 15, Downs was a full participant on Thursday and Friday. Denver runs man coverage a lot more than most teams in the NFL, but that won’t stop Downs.
Against man coverage, he has a target rate of 23.6%. That number jumps drastically to 31.8% against zone coverage. It doesn’t matter what look the Broncos run on Sunday because Downs has success against both of them. Richardson has a strong arm, but it’s not the most accurate. As a result, the Colts will rely on Downs for catch-and-run action.
Terry McLaurin
Terry McLaurin is finally a fantasy-relevant player on a weekly basis with Jayden Daniels as his quarterback. Just like Downs, McLaurin has had a lot of success this season against both man and zone coverage. He averages 0.525 fantasy points per route run (0.54 against man, 0.51 against zone).
In the 12 games where Daniels has attempted 20+ passes, McLaurin averages 66.5 yards per game and has been held to under 50 yards just twice since Week 3. He’s caught five touchdown passes in as many weeks which sets him up well. The Saints have conceded 75+ to a wide receiver in three of their last four games.
Adam Thielen
Adam Thielen may not be the same player he was in his prime in Minnesota, but he can still make plays. Since Bryce Young has returned to his starting role, Thielen has been his top target. When you factor in the Cowboys defensive struggles, it sets Thielen up to have a big game.
Dallas favors zone coverage more than man coverage which is where Thielen excels more. Against zone, he averages 11 yards per reception. This may favor PPR leagues more than standard leagues, but Thielen can be valuable in both formats if the Cowboys really emphasize trying to stop the run.
