Past 11th overall picks in NHL history

The phrase “past performance is no guarantee of future results” is a CYA catch-all often associated with the stock market. It could apply just as easily to a subject like the NHL draft. You never know what could happen when it comes to trying to evaluate and rank 17 and 18 year old hockey players when it comes to projecting just what they might develop into in the years to come. There are always the exceptions that prove the rule — like a Sidney Crosby that everyone saw coming from his earliest days — but once teams get deeper in the draft they can be relying on luck, hope and favorable fortune that is no sure thing.

That disclaimer out of the way, the past can also provide a valuable road map and set expectations with a big enough sample of just what to generally expect. The Penguins are set to pick 11th overall, which brings a variety of different potential outcomes. Their choice could go onto have a long and decorated career, or it could be an example of promise fizzling out. As usual in life, something in the middle of the two extremes is probably the most likely outcome.

The most successful

If you’re picking 11th, this is the dream come true. Jarome Iginla made the Hall of Fame, Anze Kopitar should join him. Jeff Carter, Brian Rolston and Scott Young enjoyed very good careers and were meaningful players on Stanley Cup champion teams. Filip Forsberg and Kevin Fiala are modern day excellent players. A team would be thrilled to add a player of this caliber to their organization for at least a decade or so.

The busts

Deleting out some of the older players from the 1960’s and ‘70s that are unknown today, here are some semi-recent 11thoverall picks from the past that didn’t work out after draft days with the lowest point totals. Iginla/Kopitar types may be the dream come true but getting a Sam Morin, Duncan Siemens or Oliver Wahlstrom is possible from this spot too.

The most recent 11th overalls

The stats do not yet include the 2024-25 season, Conor Geekie (21) made his NHL debut for Tampa this season scoring 14 points in 52 games last season in his draft+3 season so he does actually have an NHL sample. Tom Willander just turned pro after draft+2 by signing with Vancouver this past week. Sam Dickinson has been lighting it up for OHL London and could push to make the NHL next season in his draft+2 season after being named the OHL’s defenseman of the year and putting up 31 points in 17 playoff games so far.

Patience could be a key in the range of the 11th overall pick. These players aren’t as physically ready to make big NHL impacts — else-wise they would have been picked in the top 10. Even players with solid NHL careers might take a while to fully develop and blossom. Gabe Valardi illustrates that example, though he made it to the NHL for his draft+3 season for 10 games, he still needed significant time in the AHL in his draft+5 season and it wasn’t truly until his draft+6 season at age-23 that he broke out in a major way for his first 40+ point NHL campaign.

If we chalk the most recent years up to being too soon to know and forget about the year where Arizona was forced to forfeit the pick due to a league punishment, the scoreboard for 11th overall picks from 2012-19 would look like this:

• 37.5% of the time: great finds (Forsberg, Fiala, Vilardi)
• 12.5% of the time: decent pick (Crouse)
• 50% of the time: development case gone wrong (Morin, Brown, Wahlstrom, Soderstrom)

Not great odds based on the those eight years, but that batting average might improve soon. Askarov is on the verge of graduating to the NHL full-time and looks like he could be a quality netminder. Geekie and Willander, as mentioned, are close to being NHL contributors. Neither is expected to be a game-breaking force but both should at least be categorized in the decent area. Dickinson is still just 18-years old but looks like he’s on the trajectory of being in the top category as a very solid NHLer.

If those four most recent 11th overalls all pan out, that would lead to 66.6% of the past 12 year selections being at least a decent pick.

What does picking 11th tell the Penguins? Getting a sure-fire NHL contributor isn’t guaranteed but through the right mix or scouting and development they should be able to add a talented prospect who will have a shot at becoming a big part of the team in the years ahead.