Patriots Win Total Projection for 2025 Season (Will Mike Vrabel Help Patriots Take Next Step?)

The Patriots’ 2024 campaign was a complete mess without Bill Belichick, as New England stumbled to a 4-13 finish under Jerod Mayo, who was let go after just one year. 

It marked the second straight 4-13 campaign and fourth-place finish in the AFC East. 

Despite selecting Drake Maye in the first round, the rest of the rookie class made little impact, reinforcing long-standing issues with player development. New head coach Mike Vrabel steps in as the team’s third leader in three years, bringing a more battle-tested presence and a vision rooted in discipline and physicality.

Let’s look at how bookmakers are perceiving this change in the Patriots' win total projections for 2025. 

New England Patriots 2025 Win Total Odds

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Over 7.5: -170 
• Under 7.5: +145

Vrabel's Return to New England Projects High Expectations

The Patriots are entering 2025 with a win total set at 7.5, and while optimism is higher than it was a year ago, there are still plenty of reasons for skepticism. 

Vrabel’s arrival, paired with the return of offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and the addition of defensive coordinator Terrell Williams, has sparked some belief that New England can turn things around. Maye was decent in a tough situation last season and now has a legitimate No. 1 option in Stefon Diggs — assuming the 31-year-old receiver still has enough left after an ACL injury. That said, concerns remain about the offensive line, which could slow Maye’s development and limit the team’s ceiling even with a relatively soft schedule.

While the Patriots should be more competitive in the AFC East — especially after stealing wins from the Bills and Jets last season — leaping to the top of the division still remains extremely unlikely — at least as long as Josh Allen is still in Buffalo and the Dolphins retain their offensive firepower. The best-case scenario could be a playoff push as a wild-card team, but only if Maye takes a step forward and the team stays healthy. 

The Pats do have the second-best odds behind the Bills to win the division at +500, which I project to be generous.

It’s clear that the books respect Mike Vrabel and the impact he should have on this lost franchise. The storyline practically writes itself: a Patriots legend returns, stabilizes the franchise, and guides them to playoff contention after a chaotic stretch. With a manageable schedule and a reputation for getting the most out of his players, Vrabel has the narrative, experience, and platform to pull the Pats out of last place in 2025.