The Chicago Cubs have positioned themselves as strong contenders for the 2025 season, with PECOTA projections forecasting them to win 90.6 games—placing them among the best teams in Major League Baseball.
The projection, developed by Baseball Prospectus, ranks the Cubs as the third-best team in MLB, trailing only the Los Angeles Dodgers (103.8 wins) and Atlanta Braves (92.4 wins).
PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm) is a data-driven projection system developed by Baseball Prospectus. It uses historical player data, advanced metrics, and predictive modeling to estimate individual and team performance for the upcoming season.
While not guaranteed, projections provide valuable insight into a team's expected success based on statistical probabilities.
The Cubs are projected to comfortably lead the NL Central, with their closest competitor, the Milwaukee Brewers, projected at 80.2 wins.
The St. Louis Cardinals follow at 78.6 wins, while the Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds round out the division at 75.1 and 73.5, respectively.
According to PECOTA, the Cubs have a 79.4% chance of winning the division and an 86.9% probability of making the playoffs. Their World Series odds stand at 7.1%, the third-highest in the National League, behind the Dodgers (20.7%) and Braves (9.7%).
The Cubs’ rise in projections can be attributed to a busy offseason that saw them acquire star outfielder Kyle Tucker, elite closer Ryan Pressly, and left-handed starter Matthew Boyd.
These additions significantly strengthened the lineup and pitching staff, making the Cubs one of the most improved teams heading into 2025.
Additionally, the Cubs have remained heavily involved in the Alex Bregman sweepstakes, and adding the two-time All-Star third baseman could push them even closer to the Braves and Dodgers in projected wins.
While PECOTA projections are optimistic, they are just statistical models. Success on the field will depend on factors like player health, in-season adjustments, and unforeseen challenges. However, the 90+ win projection underscores that the Cubs have built a roster capable of competing for a deep postseason run.
With Spring Training around the corner, the Cubs enter 2025 as one of the best teams in baseball on paper—now, it’s time to prove it on the field.
