I have fired up my BigOl’JetAirliner to do a recon of each and every team the Winnipeg Jets will have to face in the upcoming campaign. When the wheels eventually touch back down in good ol’ River Heights, I hope to have a good idea of our competition’s key players/prospects, their strengths & weaknesses, and the overall depth of each franchise. To assist with that last topic, I opted to use the projected line ups provided by DailyFaceOff.com but since the visual display of the lines was better on PuckPedia, I ended up using that site to create the graphics included in the articles. Thanks to both of those helpful sites.
For the third stop of my trek around the NHL franchises, I get to remain on the East Coast and visit the state of New York for the first time. This time I am here to check in on the…..
BUFFALO SABRES:
Buffalo fans almost saw their team’s playoff drought end in 2022-23 when the Sabres’ 91 pts left them just on the outside of the wildcard spots. So the team was ready to take the next step in 2023-24, right? Unfortunately not, as Buffalo took a step back as they finished with the 22nd best record in the NHL (39-37-6 last year) and 7 pts out of the final wildcard spot in the Eastern Conference. The Goals For/Against stats indicate their short-fall was likely due to an under-performing offense, as they were tied for the 10th worst scoring team last season (246). Despite being fairly young (only 1 player older than 25), the Sabres’ defense performed well by ending up with the 11th least goals against (244).
The Buffalo Sabres haven’t made the playoffs in the entire existence of the Winnipeg Jets (version 2)…now that is a serious dry spell and I’m sure all their fans are ready for the rain to start falling. Well, the franchise now has a new coach in Lindy Ruff, who just happens to be the guy who led Buffalo to their last playoff appearance. Ruff is in his second stint with the team, as he previously was at the helm for 14 full seasons, qualifying for the post-season in 8 of those. General Manager Kevyn Adams is entering his fifth season and is only the ninth person to hold that role for the Sabres. With over $8M to spend under the NHL’s salary cap, Adams only has one RFA left to sign in Peyton Krebs. A 17th overall pick by the Vegas Golden Knights in 2019, Krebs hasn’t really hit his stride at the NHL level yet. The 6′ forward had shown some potential in his first 2 seasons by putting up 22 pts (48 gms) & 26 pts (74 gms). The center’s offense dried up a bit last year when he only got 17 pts in 80 games, however he finished with his best GF% of his career (50.8%) so he still provided value.
Buffalo had 7 players match or top the 46 pt mark last year, but some of those guys are no longer with the franchise. Casey Mittlestadt (47 pts with the Sabres) was moved to Colorado at the trade deadline & Jeff Skinner (46 pts) had his contract bought out in the off-season (has since signed with the Oilers). The remaining five Sabres are key cogs to Buffalo’s future…26 yr old Tage Thompson (56 pts), 22 yr old John-Jason Peterka (50 pts), 28 yr old Alex Tuch (59 pts), 23 yr old Dylan Cozens (47 pts), & 24 yr old defenseman Rasmus Dahlin (59 pts).
GM Adams did bring on a bunch more forwards this summer: Jason Zucker (32 pts w/ ARZ/NSH), Ryan McLeod (30 pts w/ EDM), Sam Lafferty (24 pts w/ VAN), & Nicholas Aube-Kubel (16 pts w/ WSH). The 6’2″ McLeod is only 24 years old and has the potential to reach another level, but Buffalo paid a steep price in former 9th overall selection Matthew Savoie going to Edmonton. I don’t think the answer to their anemic offense is in those additions, so the Sabres will have to rely more on the growth of their young players to light more lamps. Even though a lot of the prospects have received big league experience already, Buffalo will still probably have the youngest average age (25.55 yrs) of any NHL franchise in 2024-25.
Lets take a look at a possible opening day roster via PuckPedia’s graphic, though the unsigned Krebs or further moves by management may change things.
Buffalo’s top forward unit looks very strong, with JJ Peterka coming off a breakout season last year and two proven NHL point producers at his side. The 2nd line above will get a boost if 22 yr old Jack Quinn (19 pts in 27 gms) can stay healthy and maybe having a veteran presence on the wing (Zucker) will help 23 yr old Cozens get back to the 60-70 pt range he showed he was capable of in 2022-23.
A player with top six talent but lined up on the 3rd line above, the 19 yr old Zach Benson is coming off a season where he put up 30 pts in 71 games. The 5’9″ former 13th overall pick could give the coaching staff options, but it might be interesting to see how he gels with physical forwards McLeod & Jordan Greenway. As things stand now, the Sabres’ 4th line seems very capable of being a typical grinding unit with Lafferty (6’2″ 205 lbs), Aube-Kubel (5’11” 188 lbs), & another former Capital in Beck Malenstyn (6’2″ 194 lbs). Of course, the re-signing of Krebs could add a speedy forward to the mix and result in an alternative lineup.
I mentioned the youth of Buffalo’s defense earlier, but I want to dive even further into that. The franchise is lucky enough to have 4 key defenders under the age of 24 years…with the majority of those being selected in the top 5 of their draft years!! It starts off with the top pick of the 2018 Entry Draft and the gem of the Sabres’ defense, powerhouse 6’3″ 203 lb Dahlin. The upper New York franchise had the opportunity to add another left defenseman with a 1st overall selection in 2021 as well and Buffalo drafted 6’6″ 218 lb Owen Power (averaged 34 pts/season in first 2 years). When the team moved on from Mittlestadt at the last deadline, the ended up getting the 4th overall selection of the 2019 draft when the Avalanche sent them Bowen Byram. At only 23 yrs of age, Byram still could reach his potential ceiling but the 6’1″ LD has had troubles staying healthy (max of 55 games in an NHL season so far). The final defenseman is another big left-hander but has to live with being a “lowly” 2nd round pick (first pick in the 2nd round of 2018 draft), 6’4″ 231 lb Mattias Samuelsson.
That leaves us to look at the goaltending situation for Buffalo in 2024-25. After struggling a bit in the previous season, 2nd round pick Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen bounced back well last year (2.57GAA/.910%) and might have the inside track at the starting spot…or at least the 1A position. His main challenger could be 22 yr old Devon Levi, but the young prospect doesn’t require waivers and may lose the backup spot to newly added James Reimer. The under-sized Levi (6′) did get into 23 NHL games last year, but his .899 save percentage shows that he hardly dominated so further AHL time could be beneficial. Though, Devon did put up a .927% with the Rochester Americans last season, so there might not be much more to learn at that level. Reimer is a 35 yr old who is on his 6th NHL team after coming over from Detroit, but the veteran did put up a respectable .904% with the Wings in 2023-24.
PROBABLE FATE:
The Atlantic Division might be called the “Group of Death” by World Cup/Euro Cup football fans because it meets the criteria of having a lot of tough teams to get through. So that immediately makes Lindy Ruff’s job all that much tougher when he knows that the Buffalo Sabres will have to likely un-seed one of the Maple Leafs, Bruins, Lightning, & Panthers to gain a post-season spot. Gets even more difficult when you know teams like Detroit, Ottawa, & Montreal are hoping to do the same thing.
The GM has tried to add the size and toughness in the off-season to give his squad a chance against the heavy opponents they will face in the Atlantic this year, but have they done enough to address the offensive woes? Adams does have money (over $8M) to add more talent via trade this season, but he has to keep mind the bunch of RFAs that will need a raise next summer. Maybe they will get the goals from their youth (Quinn, Cozens, Peterka, Powers, McLeod, & Benson) instead?
It sort of hurts me to type this, as I can relate a lot to Buffalo and it’s hockey fans (small market city with high taxes that many NHL players would prefer not to play in). But I am going to say that they are once again going to come just short of qualifying for the 2024-25 post-season. Hopefully I am wrong and they can unseat one of the Atlantic’s “Big Four”….could it be time for Tampa Bay’s 7 year playoff run to end?
Even if the Sabres do fall short this season, I think key players in all positions will take important steps in their development and that should make future seasons end with a better result. So fans should keep wearing those Buffalo jerseys proudly…your time will come!
