Prediction model has Commanders going way under their projected win total in 2024

   

After only winning four games last season, the Washington Commanders are due to bounce back in 2024. The Commanders hired a new general manager (Adam Peters) and head coach (Dan Quinn) and changed over half of their 90-man roster in 2024.

The question is, how much better will the Commanders be this season?

Peters had his hands full reconstructing a roster that needed help at multiple critical positions. None more than quarterback, where Washington selected Jayden Daniels at No. 2 overall. The defense has nowhere to go but up. The Commanders were 32nd in multiple defensive categories last season.

How many games will Washington win? DraftKings Sportsbook believes the Commanders will be better, predicting them to win 6.5 games in 2024. That sounds accurate and would be considered a success under the new regime with so much turnover.

However, Sports Info Solutions sees things much differently. The SIS prediction model has Washington winning just 3.2 games — over three games less than the sportsbooks.

Only Washington’s archrival, the Philadelphia Eagles, had a larger disparity between the sportsbooks. DraftKings predicted the Eagles to win 10.5 games—a difference of 3.7 games. That’s a shocker. Meanwhile, the Cowboys had a disparity of 0.6 games, with SIS having them predicted to win 11.1 games.

What’s more surprising? The Eagles predicted to win just under seven games, or the Cowboys running away with the division?

It’s June. Things never go as planned or expected in the NFL season. Some teams will emerge as surprise contenders, while others will disappoint. One thing is certain about Washington: the Commanders will be much more fun to watch in 2024.