In today’s NHL, the future of a franchise largely hinges on superstars’ second contracts. Just look at the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Colorado Avalanche.
On Auston Matthews’ second contract, he wanted top dollar, and he got it when he inked a five-year deal with an $11.6 million cap hit. Yes, Matthews was certainly worthy of that contract, but it led to his teammates Mitch Marner and William Nylander demanding and eventually receiving similar ten-figure salaries.
As a result, Toronto has been hamstrung with cap concerns ever since and has failed to reach the second round of the playoffs during Matthews’ tenure.
Now, consider the Avalanche. When his entry-level contract expired, franchise center Nathan MacKinnon took a discounted seven-year contract with a $6.3 million cap hit. Because then-GM Joe Sakic could point to MacKinnon’s reduced salary, Colorado’s other pillars in Cale Makar, Mikko Rantanen, and Gabriel Landeskog all bought into a team-first culture and accepted salaries below their respective market values. With these bargain contracts, Sakic was able to add pieces such as Nazem Kadri and Devon Toews to help the franchise capture the Stanley Cup in 2022.
This is all to say, Blackhawks GM Kyle Davidson must nail Connor Bedard’s upcoming second contract.
Bedard’s next contract will help determine the salaries of Frank Nazar, Spencer Knight, Artyom Levshunov, Kevin Korchinski, and others. If Davidson gives Bedard max dollar, the rest can expect the same. If Bedard accepts a discount, the others will have less negotiating power and will be pressured to take discounts, too.
So, what will Connor Bedard’s next contract look like?
When MacKinnon inked his second deal in 2016, his $6.3 million average annual value was approximately 8.6% of the $73 million salary cap. With a projected $104 million salary cap in the 2026-2027 season (the first year of Bedard’s second contract), that would equate to a $8.8 million AAV for seven years for Bedard.
A different but fair comparable player for Bedard is Tim Stutzle of the Ottawa Senators. Stutzle was a top-three pick who produced 58 points in 79 games in his second year (Bedard had 67). Stutzle’s second contract was for eight years with an $8.35 million AAV, 10% of the NHL’s $83.5 million salary cap in 2023-2024. For Bedard, that would mean an eight-year deal with a $10.4 million salary.
Finally, if Bedard wanted a Matthews-esque deal it would be five years and 14.2% of the salary cap as Matthews’ was in 2019, which comes out to a $14.77 million AAV.
Now, thus far, Bedard has not proven to be worthy of a near $15 million salary, but I also doubt that with the rising cap that he will be willing to accept less than $10 million per year on any deal. I imagine that he is looking for around a $10 million AAV on a bridge deal and closer to $12 million on a max-term eight-year contract.
If Davidson can get Bedard to agree to eight years with a $10.5 million AAV, that would be a win. More importantly, the future of the Blackhawks and his job security likely depend on this contract, so he must get it right.
