Every Major League Baseball team goes into a new season with a handful of X-factors. The Boston Red Sox have one lurking in their starting rotation.
Sep 2, 2024; New York City, New York, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Brayan Bello (66) celebrates after the first inning against the New York Mets at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images
The Red Sox are staunch believers in the potential of 25-year-old righty Brayan Bello. Last March, they gave him a six-year, $55 million arbitration extension, giving them at least one extra year of control, with the potential for a second if his 2030 club option gets picked up.
Any Red Sox fan who has watched Bello pitch can see that the potential for excellence is there. So far, though, it hasn't translated to anything special on the field. He's 28-27 so far in his career with a 4.42 ERA and 340 strikeouts in 379 1/3 innings pitched.
However, one MLB writer/analytics guru believes that the long-awaited Bello breakout could happen in 2025.
On Wednesday, Eno Sarris of The Athletic named Bello as one of six "top breakout candidates" among Major League Baseball starting pitchers, pointing out that certain models were likely undervaluing how nasty his stuff could be.
"Bello does throw in the second-toughest park for pitchers in the big leagues, and he hasn’t wowed anyone with his strikeout or walk rates yet," Sarris wrote. "But he has a great changeup and a plus sinker in his bag already.
"Every year in the big leagues, his slider has gotten a little bit harder, and the batting average and slugging percentages have gotten a little bit worse. If he can sit 88 on the slider all year this year, that could be all he needs to add a few strikeouts to all of the groundouts already in his bag."
Sarris pointed out that although Bello's changeup grades out below average in the Stuff+ metric (89 last season, 100 is average), it's clear that the pitch has excellent two-plane movement. If he can finally unlock the full potential of that nasty offering, he could drastically boost his strikeout numbers.
Bello is currently dealing with shoulder soreness and is behind on his progression for Opening Day. But regardless of whether he pitches that first week of the regular season or has to wait a bit, Boston fans can sell themselves on a long-awaited breakout for at least one more year.
