Red Sox Free-Agent Hurler Predicted To Remain Unsigned: 'I Think He's Screwed'

As free agency slowly gives way to Spring Training, one former Boston Red Sox hurler may be regretting a decision he made back in November.

Sep 11, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Nick Pivetta (37) throws a pitch against the Baltimore Orioles in the first inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images David Butler II-Imagn Images

After the season, the Red Sox made the difficult decision to tender a $21.05 million qualifying offer to free-agent right-hander Nick Pivetta. Then, Pivetta made the even more difficult decision to reject the offer, entitling the Red Sox to draft compensation if he signs elsewhere.

Pivetta, 31, has long been thought to be a breakout candidate, because he has good raw stuff and generates lots of swings and misses. But he's never had an ERA below four in a full major league season, and as much as teams might want to get their hands on him, they don't seem to want to risk losing a draft pick to do so.

So although the market for starting pitchers was robust early in the offseason, Pivetta now remains unsigned. Is it crazy to think that could continue into the regular season?

In a recent YouTube video, Jim Riley of BALLCAP Sports predicted that Pivetta would not land a free-agent contract until the draft compensation penalty ends at the beginning of June, similar to a situation that unfolded with former Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel in 2019.

"I think there's a chance Nick Pivetta signs with nobody," Riley said. "You have to think about it: 'Do I want to trade Nick Pivetta for a pick between the first and the second round, or the second and the third round? No! I don't want to do any of that!"

"I think Pivetta made a huge mistake turning down that qualifying offer... I think he's screwed."

Pivetta's best bet may be a team that received revenue-sharing payments last season, because those low-payroll teams would only have to forfeit a third-round pick to sign him. Then again, those teams don't typically pay free-agent pitchers $20 million or more per season, so Pivetta might have to accept less money if he wants to be on an Opening Day roster.

There's still time to find a deal, but Pivetta's market doesn't seem to have budged in a while. The Red Sox, meanwhile, are waiting in the background rooting for the righty to get a contract almost as hard as Pivetta himself, so they can collect their draft pick prize.