Red Sox's Jarren Duran Gets $100 Million Contract Projection From ESPN Insider

Apr 22, 2025; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran (16) slides into third base for a triple against the Seattle Mariners in the first inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images David Butler II-Imagn Images

Jarren Duran's path to Major League Baseball stardom has been a unique one.

Duran had his true breakout season in 2024, winning All-Star Game Most Valuable Player honors and finishing eighth in American League MVP voting. It took him several years to grind through the minors, though, and he turned 28 last August.

That leaves Duran in a somewhat precarious position. He's one of baseball's most electric players, but he'll be 32 when he hits free agency. For a player who derives a lot of his value from his athleticism, it's hard to project how his career will evolve beyond that point.

So there are some questions that naturally arise from Duran's situation: How much will he make in the future, and how much of that future will be with the Red Sox? Though it's not a question Boston will be forced to answer until 2028, it's certainly something that could come to a head sooner.

On Tuesday, ESPN insider Jeff Passan named Duran among a group of players projected to get contracts of at least $100 million in the future, though he stopped short of projecting him for $200 million.

"(Duran) was originally on the $200 million list, but his age is a mitigating factor," Passan wrote.

"When Duran reaches free agency after the 2028 season, he will already be 32. And as dynamic a player as he is, outfielders who rely on their legs tend not to age well. That said, a $100 million-plus deal would be one hell of a consolation prize."

Duran has just a .741 OPS and 0.5 bWAR so far this season, so he's not quite keeping up with his torrid pace from 2024. But he's gotten hot of late, and as he goes, so goes the Red Sox lineup. It's really a question of how long that can continue.

Thanks to his "super two" status, Duran is under arbitration control for three more seasons. He also has an $8 million club option for next season that contains several escalators based on performance this season.

Will the Red Sox ever think about a full-on extension? That probably depends on how high Duran and his agent choose to set the price tag.