Red Sox Veterаn Predісted To Joіn AL Rіvаl After Turnіng Down $21 Mіllіon Reunіon

The fate of one key member of the 2024 Boston Red Sox has still yet to be determined.

Aug 20, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Nick Pivetta (37) delivers a pitch during the fourth inning against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Early in the offseason, the Red Sox and Nick Pivetta engaged in a cat-and-mouse game. The Red Sox tendered Pivetta the $21.05 million qualifying offer, which seemed like a risky proposition, and Pivetta went out on his own limb by declining said offer.

While fellow QO recipients in their early 30s like Sean Manaea and Luis Severino cashed in on three-year deals, however, Pivetta remains unsigned two months into the offseason. Advanced metrics like his stuff, but the fact remains that he's never had an ERA below four in his five seasons as a Red Sox.

With signing him correlating to losing a draft pick, it's not clear which team will be first to bite on Pivetta. But one American League contender could be willing to pull the trigger if the price tag comes down enough.

On Thursday, Will Laws and Nick Selbe of Sports Illustrated predicted that Pivetta would sign with the Cleveland Guardians, the defending AL Central champions, for the 2025 season.

"Over the past four years, Pivetta has been a safe bet for an ERA in the low- to mid-4’s over 150 innings. He’s been prone to giving up hard contact but has put up shiny strikeout and walk rates to raise his production floor," the authors wrote.

"Teams can never have enough pitching depth, and Pivetta is a solid mid-rotation caliber arm—though it must slightly concern him that the peers we originally grouped him with (Nick Martinez, Walker Buehler, Sean Manaea, Luis Severino) have all already secured their 2025 teams."

Pivetta, 31, has between 1.8 and 2.5 bWAR in each of the last four seasons. He pitched to a 4.14 ERA/4.07 FIP in 2024, with 172 strikeouts and 28 home runs allowed in 145 2/3 innings.

Cleveland's starting rotation won't scare many teams on paper, but it would be a solid group with Pivetta thrown into the mix. Plus, the Guardians took five of the seven matchups with the Red Sox last season, so they're already a team Boston has to be on high alert for heading into 2025.

The Red Sox wanted Pivetta at a specific price, and he believed he could do better. Whether he will seems tenuous at this point, but he could be pitching for revenge next season thanks to Boston tanking his market.