Former Red Wings defenseman and power play quarterback Shayne Gostisbehere took a perceived pay cut and signed a three-year, $9.6 million contract with the Carolina Hurricanes. Would this deal have made sense for Detroit?
Shayne Gostisbehere was supposed to get a pay day in free agency. Instead, he took a pay cut.
The former Red Wings defenseman and power play quarterback signed a three-year, $9.6 million contract with the Carolina Hurricanes, as reported by The Athletic's Pierre LeBrun.
Gostisbehere had a major bounce-back season with the Red Wings after a tough 2022-23 with Arizona. He scored 56 points from the blue line which ranked 14th among all NHL defensemen. His 29 power play points were ninth among all NHL defensemen. While Gostisbehere was mostly sheltered on the third pairing when it came to even strength play, his specialty on the man advantage made him one of the Red Wings' most valuable defensemen.
With longer term than his past one-year deal with Detroit, Gostisbehere's contract with Carolina is nearly $1 million cheaper than he was already making after a big season.
Why did Gostisbehere sign for less money?
Heading into free agency, AFP Analytics projected Gostisbehere to make $4.97 million AAV contract for three years. His $3.2 million AAV comes in well short of that. So, the question is why?
You could maybe blame the market, but fellow power play ace Brandon Montour made $7,142,857 for seven years with Seattle. While signing a player for that much money until he's 37 was certainly a bold choice by the Kraken, it shows that power play role players had lots of value on this free agent market.
With the Carolina Hurricanes, Gostisbehere joins a team that's further ahead toward playoff contention that the Red Wings, with a lot more established star power and more recent playoff success. If any team made sense to take a pay cut, it's a team of this caliber where Gostisbehere has a chance to win postseason games. While Detroit is trending closer and closer to a grand return to the Stanley Cup Playoffs, for a 31-year-old power play specialist, the waiting game is dubious territory.
Would the Red Wings have made this deal with Gostisbehere?
Yes, absolutely. With limited cap space to furnish the roster, signing their highest scoring blue liner for such a cheap contract would have been a major coup. And right now, Detroit management is probably wishing they could have.
Just compare Gostisbehere to his replacement. The Red Wing signed Erik Gustafsson of the New York Rangers for two years at $2 million. Gustafsson ran the Rangers' second unit behind All-Star Adam Fox, and he finished the season with nine power play points across 95 minutes of 5-on-4 play. Gostisbehere had 29 points in 328 minutes. Perhaps there's some untapped value given Gustafsson's marginally better scoring rate per minute, especially given the strength of Gustafsson's skating. But in terms of what he has proven on the ice, Gustafsson is not as effective of a power play quarterback as Gostisbhere.
Overall, the difference between a more effective known quantity in Gostisbehere and a budget replacement in Gustafsson is probably worth the extra $1.2 million cap hit it would have taken.
A comparison of Shayne Gostisbehere and Erik Gustafsson by NHL Edge
Perhaps the term of the contract was a sticking point with Detroit. Having just signed him to an ELC this offseason, the Red Wings should be bringing 2023 first round pick and power play specialist Axel Sandin Pellikka over to North America within the next couple of years. They'll want him to have those QB reps, which would absorb Gostisbehere's role in the process. Say what you will about unproven replacements, but it would've been difficult to roster both of them at the same time and still give them appropriate minutes. The two-year term of Gustafsson would've been more in line with those needs.
Still, that problem would have been a distant one, and Yzerman doesn't just give his rookies handouts anyway. Gostisbehere would've provided better competition for Sandin Pellikka to earn his spot from, not to mention his higher efficacy on the power play.
