Tis the season. The 'lying season.'
With NFL draft day having finally arrived, the rumor mill has erupted around the Denver Broncos. Since Thursday dawned, we've heard from Adam Schefter that the Broncos have been receiving calls from teams behind them in the first round looking to trade up, and that Denver could glean as many as three draft picks in exchange for the No. 20 overall pick.
It's hard to say which way is up, though, especially after The Athletic's Dianna Russini reported on Thursday that the Broncos are actively working the phones to trade up.
"The phone lines are getting busier as the first round nears, per sources," Russini posted on X. "The Broncos and Texans are attempting to move up the draft order, while the Giants are trying to acquire a second first-round pick at the back end of the round."
Although not a 'power struggle,' there could be a battle of wills taking place at Broncos HQ between GM George Paton and head coach Sean Payton. Paton's track record and public remarks convey an inherent stockpiling philosophy in the draft, acquiring as many darts as possible to throw at the board.
Meanwhile, Payton has a reputation and history of trading up in the draft. Which penchant will win out at Dove Valley?
It will depend on the prospects in question and the offers on the table. Paton and Payton are a unified tandem. The regime in Denver may be relatively new, but it is stable and possesses the full faith and support of the Walton/Penner ownership group.
Circling back to Russini's report, if the Broncos are actively seeking a trade up, which prospect(s) could they be targeting? Daniel Jeremiah's new and final mock draft had the Broncos trading up to No. 13 with the Miami Dolphins to select Michigan tight end Colston Loveland.
Penn State's Tyler Warren could also be a possibility. However, there is some bonafide Day 2 tight end talent in this class, so would Denver be willing to part with current and future draft capital to land a prospect whose position doesn't have the greatest track record of first-round success?
Perhaps the Broncos covet Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty. I wince somewhat at the thought of trading draft capital to move up as far as it would take to guarantee landing Jeanty (top five), and like the tight end group, this year's running back class is stacked to the gills from Round 1 through Round 7. But Jeanty is a rare talent and could be worth the cost.
What's the smart, practical, prudent decision? Depending on Denver's big board, it could be to stand pat at No. 20 and take the best player available, without relinquishing draft capital.
But if the Broncos' big board has multiple players rated in the same bunch from pick 20 to, say, pick 30, the calculating decision would be to accept a trade-back, and stockpile those picks. The Broncos currently sit on seven picks, though none in the fifth or seventh round. They have three in Round 6, however.
Rationality can go out the window, though, if/when a coach or GM falls head-over-heels in love with a prospect. And Payton has been known to do that — just like last year with quarterback Bo Nix. Fortunately, the Broncos didn't have to trade up to land Nix, letting the board fall to them at pick No. 12.
