Rough outing a potential worrying omen for Cubs star pitcher

Have major league hitters figured out Cubs pitcher Shota Imanaga?

That question is worth asking after Chicago's prized 2023 free-agent addition was roughed up against the Mets on Friday. In three innings, Imanaga allowed 10 earned runs and 11 hits. He entered the game with a 1.89 earned run average (ERA), which increased to 2.96 after his second outing versus New York.

The Mets teed off on pitches in the zone, including designated hitter J.D. Martinez's first-inning, three-run blast on a 92 mph fastball.

JD Martinez takes Shota Imanaga deep! pic.twitter.com/4dr7v9KJqd

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) June 21, 2024

Left fielder Brandon Nimmo dinged a two-run shot in the second on an 89 mph four-seamer that hung over the bottom half of the zone.

Imanaga has made up for his below-average four-seam velocity by excelling at getting batters to swing on pitches outside of the zone. His 35.5 percent chase rate is in the 96th percentile among MLB pitchers, per Baseball Savant.

But the Mets weren't fooled this time after managing just three hits in seven innings during their first game against Imanaga on May 1.

New York was patient at the plate, each of their three home runs against Imanaga coming off four-seamers in the zone.

His stuff is hittable as long as batters are disciplined and don't chase pitches.

Per Baseball Reference, hitters have a batting average on balls in play (BAPIP) of .297 against Imanaga after Friday's outing, which ranks as the league's 21st-highest BAPIP.

Fortunately for Imanaga, his next two projected starts — based on five days' rest — are against the Giants and Phillies, teams he's yet to pitch against.

Imanaga might revert to his earlier form when facing batters for the first time, but Friday's outing raises concerns over his performances once hitters grow accustomed to his style.

It's worth monitoring how quickly Imanaga adapts, too. According to data from Baseball Savant, four-seamers make up the majority of his pitches (54.4 percent), and he might need to use splitters (33.9 percent) and off-speed pitches more often.

Against the Mets, Imanaga's average four-seam fastball (90.1 mph) was 1.6 mph slower than his season average.

After confounding hitters through the first three months of the season, Imanaga has his own riddle to solve.